By the way Tai - I was referring to your ICM Calcs post when I made the calculation, but maybe you could clarify for future readers the formula that determines the win probability required to call.
I just had to work that out on paper (scratching my head trying to remember basic algebra), but to make it easier for people maybe you could revise that post to include the simplified equation:24.2% = (x * 36.1%) + ((1-x) * 12.1%) where x = probability of winning
Solving for x (if you suck at algebra because like me you haven’t done it for 15+ years, you can use goal seek in Excel to solve this), x = 50.4% so Hero needs to be at least 50.4% to win against Villain’s likely range to make this call +EV.
x = (Fold - Lose) / (Win - Lose)
... where Fold, Lose, Win are the respective ICM prize pool percentages. I think it's simpler than using Excel's goalseek.



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