Strong or weak? Bubble, big stack bully.

I folded, and probably never would call here, but I was wondering what you guys think that table talk highlighted below indicates: Strong or Weak?

Full Tilt Poker Game #3779515017: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (28794134), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:16:04 ET - 2007/10/07
Seat 2: boonkauc (990)
Seat 4: eugmac (1,590)
Seat 6: HelloMinor (8,460)
Seat 9: bullshark32 (2,460)
eugmac posts the small blind of 40
HelloMinor posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to eugmac [Ah Js]
bullshark32 folds
boonkauc folds
eugmac raises to 240
HelloMinor: bubble
HelloMinor has 15 seconds left to act
HelloMinor raises to 8,460, and is all in
eugmac has 15 seconds left to act
HelloMinor: gl

Unfortunately you can't call here, not with AJo and blinds only at 40/80. Sucks not to be the big stack.

EDIT: Here's something to ponder. Opp could shove over as he did, show you 32 offsuit, and it would still be incorrect to call. THERE'S something to chew on!

Arn't you only suppose to be calling here with AA and KK?

Originally Posted by DetroitHusling101

Arn't you only suppose to be calling here with AA and KK?

No, you can call wider depending on what opp's shove over range is likely to be. Why don't you try to give the ICM on this hand a go - there's a linked post in the SNG Tactics Digest with some worked examples if you do.

Originally Posted by taipan168

Unfortunately you can't call here, not with AJo and blinds only at 40/80. Sucks not to be the big stack.

EDIT: Here's something to ponder. Opp could shove over as he did, show you 32 offsuit, and it would still be incorrect to call. THERE'S something to chew on!

That is an interesting thought - I guess I'm not nearly as aggressive enough when I *am* the big stack if that is the case? I'm rarely pushing people over very light in that situation...

Originally Posted by eugmac

That is an interesting thought - I guess I'm not nearly as aggressive enough when I *am* the big stack if that is the case? I'm rarely pushing people over very light in that situation...

The problem is that shoving over light is only +EV if opps know not to make a horrible call with something like QTo in this spot. This is more the case at higher buyins than lower ones.

Ignore the chat, Its bullllllllllllllshit...

I tried the ICM calculation and it seems I need to be over 66% ahead of his range to make calling +EV. That means AJ vs ATC is a fold like Taipan said above ,at about 63.5%.

You need to have a pretty darn good hand to be calling with 66%. Great move by him if he is smart enough to know that you can't call since if you bust you bubble and throw equity to the other players since you are currently in 3rd. He knows that if you call and win, he still has the chip advantage.

Originally Posted by eugmac

I tried the ICM calculation and it seems I need to be over 66% ahead of his range to make calling +EV. That means AJ vs ATC is a fold like Taipan said above ,at about 63.5%.

You nailed it - I actually did the ICM before responding and yes, you need to be 66.7% to win against opp's range to make this a good call.

By the way Tai - I was referring to your ICM Calcs post when I made the calculation, but maybe you could clarify for future readers the formula that determines the win probability required to call.

24.2% = (x * 36.1%) + ((1-x) * 12.1%) where x = probability of winning

Solving for x (if you suck at algebra because like me you haven’t done it for 15+ years, you can use goal seek in Excel to solve this), x = 50.4% so Hero needs to be at least 50.4% to win against Villain’s likely range to make this call +EV.

I just had to work that out on paper (scratching my head trying to remember basic algebra), but to make it easier for people maybe you could revise that post to include the simplified equation:

x = (Fold - Lose) / (Win - Lose)

... where Fold, Lose, Win are the respective ICM prize pool percentages. I think it's simpler than using Excel's goalseek.

sick math yo

this is a clear fold PF with the big stack to act behind, yes?

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

this is a clear fold PF with the big stack to act behind, yes?

I think that open folding AJo preflop is way too weak. Many $5.50 opps won't realise the power of the big stack here (or will realise that most $5.50 opps will call a shove over too wide) but you definitely gotta GTFO when opp shoves over.

Here I was the big stack, 2 hands into the bubble, and I pushed him over here figuring he's more likely to have two unpaired cards here, making my two unpaired cards not that bad of a dog. Now even if he calls my push light with something like AJo like in the OP, seeing that he'd be making a -EV call ICM-wise, isn't it the case that we profit every time our opponent plays incorrectly according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker?

Or did I make a really really gross play? :P


Full Tilt Poker Game #3868648329: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (29449589), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:52:07 ET - 2007/10/15
Seat 1: Cha_touille (1,810)
Seat 3: eugmac (6,860)
Seat 6: lanewalkerx (2,745)
Seat 9: Steelie_Dan (2,085)
Cha_touille posts the small blind of 50
eugmac posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to eugmac [2h 3h]
lanewalkerx folds
Steelie_Dan has 15 seconds left to act
Steelie_Dan raises to 400
Cha_touille folds
eugmac raises to 6,860, and is all in

That's a super aggressive move and yes, I like it if opp has shown he knows how to fold.