Short-Stack in MTT: Ship it or fold?

I'm short stacked in the BB with an M = 2.6. Villain raises from HJ. I have ATo. Insta-shove and expect a call or fold? Usually, I would expect AT to better than a large stacks raising range from the HJ. But this opponent hasn't been raising much from late position, instead opting to limp with vulnerable holdings and play post-flop.

Reads: Have seen 52 hands with Villain who is playing 23/6. He has not attempted to steal once, but he has been cold-calling raises and limping from late position. Of the three raises, two went to show-down and was TT, the other was 77 (for a flopped set). Of the late position limps, one went to show down as JTs.

$10 + $1 MTT: 1500/3000 Ante 400

MP2 (5,659)
Villain (175,324)
CO (68,696)
Button(90,051)
SB (20,885)
Hero in BB (22,194)
UTG (34,507)
UTG+1 (19,563)
MP 1 (87,120)

Dealt Hero [Ah Ts]
4 folds, HJ raises to 9,000, 3 folds, Hero?

I would definitely expect a call here, since I feel villain is priced in. Unless the players behind you are real tight, and you think you have a real good chance of stealing the blinds and antes in the next few hands I think you have to make a stand here.

I meant to say should I shove or fold (not asking whether he would call or fold if i shoved)... obviously he would call. I would normally shove here, but hesitated considering how little he had raised in late position, and wondered if any would consider folding.

taking into account your reads and feelings i think your a10 could be behind here
i could talk myself into folding knowing id have good position in a couple of hands time

I think it's a fold vs. a fairly tight LP raiser.

If you shove and he calls your all-in, the pot will be 48688. It's going to cost you 18794 chips to shove. Disregarding ICM and assuming no fold equity, you need 38.6% equity here for a shove to be neutral EV. Using 6% in PokerStove and adjusting it slightly to include 77, we get the following results.

Code:

Hand 0: 	67.062%  	66.01% 	01.05% 	      76581430 	  1216454.88   { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 	32.938%  	31.89% 	01.05% 	      36994256 	  1216454.88   { AhTs }

Looks like a cry and fold situation to me.

I would stop n go, stack sizes work out nicely

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I would stop n go, stack sizes work out nicely

Ahh... right. I was initially thinking that folding would be stupid but needed to see what PokerStove had to say. This is the perfect time for a stop and go.

Also, I just realized how small the sample size is. Let's assume a slightly wider opening range:

Code:

Hand 0: 	62.602%  	60.63% 	01.98% 	     106664196 	  3477853.87   { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 	37.398%  	35.42% 	01.98% 	      62319332 	  3477853.87   { AhTs }

Now we are close to correct equity, but still not quite there. Will he ever fold? I don't think he can getting 2.8:1. Folding here seems pretty nitty for us, but if we're on some kind of bubble, it's not horrible since MP2 is so short and we'll probably be able to shove over UTG+1 when he's in the blinds. So a fold isn't terrible if you're really not in the mood to bust out right here, and a stop and go is best if you're looking to chip up and go deep.

I like the stop and go. I was already in the money, so I was looking to go deep. I folded thinking I wasn't getting right odds to shove, but the stop and go is a great opportunity that I didn't even consider. Thanks!