PP 10+1. KQ 4 handed.

#Game No : 2961971329
***** Hand History for Game 2961971329 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:17038630 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, October 31, 22:51:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 71541 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: IModFTR ( $1445 )
Seat 6: VinnyV76 ( $1645 )
Seat 8: dying8towin ( $1235 )
Seat 9: rickcouns1 ( $3675 )
Trny:17038630 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IModFTR [ Kh Qc ]
IModFTR is all-In [1445]

Do you push?

it depends for me on the table. your putting alot of pressure on Ax hands and low pocket pairs and if i think theyll gamble with me i probably wont since i know im 99% of the time behind when called. a tight table though ill push and expect to pick up the blinds easily. i think i make this play more often then i dont, but it does depend for me.

yea i push that.

you should run the numbers on this one gabe.
I thought it was an obvious push...

I push

Easy push.

if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.

seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.

Originally Posted by gabe

if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.

seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.

when i foudn this out, i went crazy.

Originally Posted by gabe

if their calling ranges are 66+, ATs+, AJo+, then the push is neutral EV.

seeing as how most $11s on party are probably looser than this, it is most likely a -EV push.

I would think this is only a problem if you are more likely to get more than one caller in those games. I dont play the 11s on party so I dont know what its like but if you only get one caller in most cases then widening his hand range (you would have to add in hands that are weaker than KQ to do this) wont lower your EV.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 36.2194 % [ 00.32 00.05 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 63.7806 % [ 00.59 00.05 ] { AA-66, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 48.7714 % [ 00.46 00.03 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 51.2286 % [ 00.48 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

So you get a caller more often but in turn your hand holds up more often.

This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?

Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.

if you are going to include JTo, you gotta include alot more aces than just ATo, but thats beside the point

if you are more likely to get called, and you are behind most of the time, it is still -ev.

Originally Posted by drawman

This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?

Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.

The blinds dictate the hands you should play, when the blinds start becoming significant compared to your stack you can't afford to camp for a monster since you will either blind out or be so shortstacked by the time you get it that you will still be shortstacked even if you double up.

Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you? because you need to pick up the blinds. you only have 7 of them in your stack and the structure of the tournament means they are going to be up going up again soon.

What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?
with only 4 people left, people are playing scared. they all want to make the money. this is the best time to pick up lots of pots (because people are scared) so that you have a nice sized stack when you get ITM, and then you can fight for first place.

Yes, I didnt notice at first there were only 4 people left.
Aggression is definitely a part of my game I need to work at.

Originally Posted by gabe

if you are going to include JTo, you gotta include alot more aces than just ATo, but thats beside the point

if you are more likely to get called, and you are behind most of the time, it is still -ev.

Hand 1: 47.5433 % [ 00.45 00.03 ] { KhQc }
Hand 2: 52.4567 % [ 00.50 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%). If you get called 100% of the time you are still +EV since the dead money in the pot (unless its the big blind who called) will give you good enough pot odds. It might be less EV than at a tighter table but I don't think its -EV.

Originally Posted by arkana

Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%)

it is definitely more -EV. adding small pairs and all the aces in the range gives alot more situations where you are behind by a small margin, and if you consistently do this in party sngs you will lose lots of chips. the pot odds might help compensate for this a little, but in general you don't want people calling pushes.

also, although you have a higher win percentage against this range, it is still losing to the range. my guess is that the number of hands you get called by increases enough to overcome the smaller edge your opponent has.

i might not have explained this well, but SNG power tools say pushing here loses more against a wider range. i know thats a lame way of trying to justify my argument, but it's usually what i consult when i can decide how correct a push is.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by arkana

Adding in more aces actually help because the ratio of the number of hands in his range that dominate your hand (AA-QQ, AK, AQ) to the number of hands that you either dominate or are close to a coinflip with becomes smaller and therefore your hand will hold up more often (about 45% of the time instead of 32%)

it is definitely more -EV. adding small pairs and all the aces in the range gives alot more situations where you are behind by a small margin, and if you consistently do this in party sngs you will lose lots of chips. the pot odds might help compensate for this a little, but in general you don't want people calling pushes.

also, although you have a higher win percentage against this range, it is still losing to the range. my guess is that the number of hands you get called by increases enough to overcome the smaller edge your opponent has.

i might not have explained this well, but SNG power tools say pushing here loses more against a wider range. i know thats a lame way of trying to justify my argument, but it's usually what i consult when i can decide how correct a push is.

I think its probably due to the high variance this push has (its definitely not a big +EV move) and that combined with ICM doesnt make it worthwhile. I don't know how those SNG power tools work but does it take into account the fact that other players are less likely to call if someone else has called already or does it just assume any player with that range will call no matter what the action?

Originally Posted by vqc

Seat 1: IModFTR ( $1445 )
Seat 6: VinnyV76 ( $1645 )
Seat 8: dying8towin ( $1235 )
Seat 9: rickcouns1 ( $3675 )
Trny:17038630 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IModFTR [ Kh Qc ]

Do you push?

This is likely a -EV push from UTG. Here's why. You don't have the smallest chip stack. It's really that simple here. KQ is not a strong hand. In fact, it's not a strong hand from UTG in particular. It's an ok hand to see a showdown with when you're called, but all things being equal, it's not a strong hand.

I know it sucks to have to go through the blinds here soon, but that is most likely the best move. Another thing to think about, you want to allow the other stacks to make mistakes. Here is an excellent chance to let the short stack push into the bigstack. If the short stack folds, great.

There's a bigger dilemma looming by the way. Let's say you fold here, and they all fold. Next hand you're the BB, and dying8towin pushes into your big blind. What hand range are you calling with?

Here's the big picture. At this stage, if the big stack keeps accumulating chips, it has very little impact on the overall equity between you and the other smaller stacks. But, when the short stack takes chips away from the ther medium stacks, especially in my example above, this is one of the biggest equity transfers in the game. This is the type of hand, situation you need to be prepared for. Your calling standards need to change, unless you have some knowledge otherwise.

Anyhow, I fold this hand here.

KQ four handed is strong, few hands have you dominated and I hate to bring M into this but its not even 5. Remember we are playing to win not to make the money. I still think its a marginal fold or push (starting to lean towards fold) but its definitely not clear cut.

hmmmmm - I would have thought this was a good push - four handed - for me I can't find a fold here.

Originally Posted by Gareth

hmmmmm - I would have thought this was a good push - four handed - for me I can't find a fold here.

I'll do the math. Give me the calling ranges for button, SB and BB.

Originally Posted by arkana

Originally Posted by drawman

This is a topic I really dont understand probably due to my inexperience.
Why push a hand that could potentially cripple you?
What's the point of putting your tournament at risk just to pick up blinds?

Especially at this level, you'll get all kinds of people calling with Ax, any pocket pair. I dont see the point in taking the risk.

The blinds dictate the hands you should play, when the blinds start becoming significant compared to your stack you can't afford to camp for a monster since you will either blind out or be so shortstacked by the time you get it that you will still be shortstacked even if you double up.

Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.

FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.

FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.

Not a huge difference between being the Button and UTG when you there are only 4 players at the table. I wasn't thinking about just my stack and my cards. Are you trying to say you only play aggressive if you are the shortest stack at the table? Accoring to Harringtons zone system this is a push. The only factor that could turn it into a fold is the fact that the players are so loose...

I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".

Wow, I thought this was a pretty easy push, but it doesnt seem so correct as I thought.
So, am I right about that the following factors combined leads to a fold in this situation:

1) KQ isnt so strong a hand as it looks like - you are mostly a little behind when it comes to a race

2) your position UTG

3) you dont have the shortest stack at the table.

4) your position relative to the other shortstacks at the table

5) the calling standard for normal players in the 10s at PP is loose

Any other things to consider?

Originally Posted by arkana

I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".

It's too bad you just look at my responses as, this guy is an ass, rather than trying to formulate into words what is important. I have yet to respond with either good advice, or good questions to ask people, if the post dictates a good question. All I'm saying is, make a better case for folding. Then make your case for moving in. I'm certain even you can do that.

OK, I just ran the math on this to PROVE it to you. BTW, I've run this about 10 times before.

If we assume the calling ranges of Button and SB are 66+, ATs+, AJo+ AND we assume Bigstack range is 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+, the results of the $EV analysis is -
-0.4%.

By the way, if I change the stacks so that our hero has the 1235 stack, and push from here, it is still only marginally +$EV. The answer is:
+0.1%

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Originally Posted by arkana

I don't care if you have played 1 million and 3 sngs and you are 85 years old, if you want to make posts like these please attempt to explain yourself instead of saying things like "think more man".

It's too bad you just look at my responses as, this guy is an ass, rather than trying to formulate into words what is important. I have yet to respond with either good advice, or good questions to ask people, if the post dictates a good question. All I'm saying is, make a better case for folding. Then make your case for moving in. I'm certain even you can do that.

Its not like you made a good case yourself, all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation. Your results prove thats its slightly -EV if the calling ranges are that loose, I never said it wasn't. All i said its not a clear fold, like you made it sound.

Originally Posted by arkana

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Ugh. There's more to this game than just your stack and your cards. Think more man. You are not the short stack here. You have terrible position.

FWIW, this hand is closer to a push from the button. Anyhow, part of your statement above is correct for general SNG strategy. It's just misapplied here.

Accoring to Harringtons zone system this is a push. The only factor that could turn it into a fold is the fact that the players are so loose...

Harrington can be wrong here.
Hes zone system doesnt take into account SPECIFIC holdings that your opponents can have. His zone system ONLY takes into account your positiong and cards.

Do you also use those SNG power tools to do these calculations? Not because I think your results are wrong but I would like to see someone do all the calculations step by step and see how they get to the result.

Originally Posted by arkana

Do you also use those SNG power tools to do these calculations? Not because I think your results are wrong but I would like to see someone do all the calculations step by step and see how they get to the result.

yes I use SNG power tools,

however,

if u really really really wanted me to
I could use Dethgrinds ICM calculator and give u a full blown calcualtion thingamajiggy like I did in my old old old folding AK thread.

i thought this was a no brainer?
unless of course you have pushed 6 hands straight in which case ace high calls and you're behind but id still push without a thought

Originally Posted by arkana

Its not like you made a good case yourself, all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation. Your results prove thats its slightly -EV if the calling ranges are that loose, I never said it wasn't. All i said its not a clear fold, like you made it sound.

You know what, good luck to you at your games. I can't help everyone. It's not like my first post in this thread wasn't 4 paragraphs of psychological explanation (So, thanks for putting words in my mouth). Furthermore, due to the fact that I have played a bazillion SNGs, and to the fact that I have SNG powertools, and use it all the frickin time, you know it's possible, it's just quite possible I might have seen this ONE situation before? Oh, and perhaps I may have already done the math on it. Furthermore, I also knew how to do all this math stuff before powertools even came out.

Just so I'm not the complete jerk here, let's review.

all you said was that I was wrong with no explanation.

This is likely a -EV push from UTG. Here's why.

Get ready. This is the lead up. I think I might have said something after this....

Point one:

You don't have the smallest chip stack. It's really that simple here.

Point two:

KQ is not a strong hand. In fact, it's not a strong hand from UTG in particular.

Point three:

thing to think about, you want to allow the other stacks to make mistakes.

Point four:

At this stage, if the big stack keeps accumulating chips, it has very little impact on the overall equity between you and the other smaller stacks.

Holy moly. I think that's 4 concrete, non-mathematical points. I don’t understand why the ‘rod-in-the-ass’ comments you’re making. Anyhow, I’m done responding to you.

I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.

On a side note last SnG I played 4 left I was like 1k in chips, I went all-in PF with 77 got called by a KQ who rivered a K.

Originally Posted by ProZachNation

I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.

reread the thread.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by ProZachNation

I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.

reread the thread.

And?

my push here depends on my image. if i have a tight image and have shown good hands and haven't got stealing with crap then i probably push here because the calling range will be smaller, they will fold their ace,rag and low pairs more giving you the edge you need. also depends on your opponents and how scared you think they are to bust and how fishy you think they are. these marginal +/- EV pushes should be made or not made based on factors that we cannot determine from looking at your hand history.

also, where can i find sng power tools, what are all of the features of it, and is it free?

Originally Posted by ProZachNation

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by ProZachNation

I say push, KQ is prob the best you will see in a few hands.

reread the thread.

And?

and the your answer doesnt have anyting to do with the conversatino we are having.
there are times where we should make -EV pushes becuase itll be less negative than all future pushes.
this is not one of these times.

Originally Posted by lovemachine

my push here depends on my image. if i have a tight image and have shown good hands and haven't got stealing with crap then i probably push here because the calling range will be smaller, they will fold their ace,rag and low pairs more giving you the edge you need. also depends on your opponents and how scared you think they are to bust and how fishy you think they are. these marginal +/- EV pushes should be made or not made based on factors that we cannot determine from looking at your hand history.

also, where can i find sng power tools, what are all of the features of it, and is it free?

search google for sitngo-analyzer

it is not free

these hands are marginal +/-EV pushes becuase we can indeed put the opponents on a calling range. The point so far is that the push is -EV as long as everyone is not really tight.

Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.

Originally Posted by Bmxicle

Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.

So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you?

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Originally Posted by Bmxicle

Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.

So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you?

this has been a point of debate before

a) do you pass up a marginal +EV push now for a more +EV push later
b) or do you make a marginal +EV push now becuase it is +EV.
c) you make a marginal +EV push now so you have more chips for more +EV pushes later

Originally Posted by vqc

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Originally Posted by Bmxicle

Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.

So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you?

this has been a point of debate before

a) do you pass up a marginal +EV push now for a more +EV push later
b) or do you make a marginal +EV push now becuase it is +EV.
c) you make a marginal +EV push now so you have more chips for more +EV pushes later

You realize I said neutral right?

well taking a neutral EV situation now could lead to more + EV later. some people (gigabet is the one that comes to mind) even take -EV situations because they believe it will amount to enough +EV later to make up for the -EV now. so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this. if when you do get lucky enough to steal blinds or double, you can't use your stack to your advantage to bully the other stacks and get into situations where you have more positive EV, then you should probably just fold the neutral EV situation. try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this, it isn't something that can be calculated like shoving QK vs a specific calling range so you need to estimate for yourself.

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Originally Posted by Bmxicle

Put it into sng analyzer and its -Ev unless they all only call w/ 66+ ATs+ AJo+ at which point it is a break even push.

So if it's breakeven, what does that mean to you?

Generally i will have reads, know calling ranges and know how more or less chips will hurt or help my folding equity later on. Since i don't do the math on every hand i play, i just do it by the feel of the other players and what i feel is the best play, so really when i'm playing there is no real "breakeven" play, i just decide which is the best course of action to take.

Strictlyin terms of math by breakeven i mean it does relaly matter what you do.

good thread...i would normally push this without thinking about it.

I just wanted to emphasize that I think our calling range is either too tight, or just right. Big stacks call with a very wide range. I have been called with K8s, and QJo. Here, Big Stack had ducks....

***** Hand History for Game 2967983507 *****
150/300 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17070739) - Wed Nov 02 03:19:05 EST 2005
Table Table 67242 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Sirjenowic (3352)
Seat 6: Scuba_Chuck (930)
Seat 7: hartless7 (2638)
Seat 8: ElRubioX (1080)
ElRubioX posts small blind (75)
Sirjenowic posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuck [ 8h, 6c ]
Scuba_Chuck folds.
hartless7 folds.
ElRubioX raises (1005) to 1080
ElRubioX is all-In.
Sirjenowic calls (930)
Creating Main Pot with $2160 with ElRubioX
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qd, Qc, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 7s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2160 |
Board: [ Qd Qc 5d 2h 7s ]
Sirjenowic balance 4432, bet 1080, collected 2160, net +1080 [ 2s 2c ] [ a full house, Twos full of queens -- Qd,Qc,2s,2c,2h ]
Scuba_Chuck balance 930, didn't bet (folded)
hartless7 balance 2638, didn't bet (folded)
ElRubioX balance 0, lost 1080 [ As Qs ] [ three of a kind, queens -- As,Qs,Qd,Qc,7s ]

Originally Posted by lovemachine

well taking a neutral EV situation now could lead to more + EV later. some people (gigabet is the one that comes to mind) even take -EV situations because they believe it will amount to enough +EV later to make up for the -EV now. so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this. if when you do get lucky enough to steal blinds or double, you can't use your stack to your advantage to bully the other stacks and get into situations where you have more positive EV, then you should probably just fold the neutral EV situation. try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this, it isn't something that can be calculated like shoving QK vs a specific calling range so you need to estimate for yourself.

How does Gigabet's theory of blocks relate to this? (In case you didn't know, his "taking negative -EV moves" is directly related to his block theory) Second of all, he didn't advocate taking -EV moves that would cost you your tournament life. Anyhow, you might want to consider going back to reread that post.

I'm going to continue to be a little critical of your post because I think you spent some time trying to demonstrate your thought process, meaning your're trying to learn. But your thoughts are really discombobulated.

so i suppose if you think you can gain enough EV later from picking up chips from stealing or winning an all-in as a slight underdog then i think you should push a neutral EV situation like this.

This is the same as pushing any two cards. This is precisely the kind of thought process that can cost you money (called expected value).

try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this

I've reread this a few times now. And it still confuses me. Why do you advise to keep in mind future EV, and not consider the current EV? The only EV I'm considering at this stage, is finishing ITM.

If its -EV to push here when you are called then is this not just a case where you are stealing the blinds and don't want a call.

Originally Posted by Gareth

If its -EV to push here when you are called then is this not just a case where you are stealing the blinds and don't want a call.

EV calculations take into consideration stealing the blinds, and the potential to be called. I don't understand your statement.

I don't understand how someone in VQC's situation in the original post is going to fold - i understand when u say it is -EV move but sometimes in poker u have to gambol.

With his stack size he is in Push/Fold mode - if he does not push with KQo then he is likely to be blinded out IMO. As the big hands don't come along that often sometimes you just don't get them at all.

It would be good to hear from the people who play at the high stakes SnG - on what they would do here.

Keep in mind that your stack is still big enough to hurt the big stack and a push from UTG is a lot scarier than a push from the button, even 4 handed.

Do all the math you want, folding KQo UTG 4-handed is a bad move. It's a damn fine hand w 4 players. Push it.

As has been mentioned, but not emphasized enough IMO, there is not enough context given to properly determine the correct course of actions. For example, if this is the beginning of the push/fold phase of the tourney, ie the preflop push hasnt really occurred yet, then I think you must greatly restrict the calling ranges of all players yet to act. However, if it has been push/fold for a few minutes, the starting requirements go down dramatically.
Another concern would have to be how does the short stack play. Is he likely to get blinded down to nothing, or will he make a (correct) desperation push while he still has folding equity? I have seen people do down to nothing waiting for their big hand, and this has to be considered when determining what is the best move in this situation.
Also, the range of hands that seem to have been used in the calculations seem to be quite restricted for a low level, 'loose' table. I think if it really is that loose, many more hands have to be added to the mix. This also comes with other issues, such as, if the calling range is so wide, then the overall play at the table is most likely a lot worse, and this has to be added to any considerations.

Originally Posted by Gareth

I don't understand how someone in VQC's situation in the original post is going to fold - i understand when u say it is -EV move but sometimes in poker u have to gambol.

By your statements, you clearly do not understand the thought processes behind 'expected value.' Your statement is akin to saying, "I know 2+2 = 4, but sometimes it's really 3.5." Furthermore, sometimes, in poker, gamboooling is correct. And, sometimes in poker, gambooling is wrong. There are many instances where that thought process is unclear. Here is one of the few opportunities to have clear vision - the bubble.

Let's be definitive here. Let's say this is a $109 buyin. And let's say this push is -$EV by -0.5%. Furthermore, let's assume our hero plays the $109s for a living, so on average he is playing ~ 10,000 SNGs a year. Furthermore, let's say he is presented with -0.5% -EV situations 50 times a month (or 600 times a year). Essentially, gamboooling it up here is costing our hero $32,700 a year. So, if you're a gambooler, then you have quite a few leaks to plug in your game.

With his stack size he is in Push/Fold mode - if he does not push with KQo then he is likely to be blinded out IMO. As the big hands don't come along that often sometimes you just don't get them at all.

Yes, it is push/fold mode. No, he is not likely to get blinded out. Just from reading your comments I can tell patience is not one of your strong points. The only stack that should be anxious right now is the small stack. Have you considered the size of the other stacks? I sense from your comments all that you are considering is a) your stack b) the size of the blinds & c) your cards. In SNGs, you are rewarded more for playing the situation, than the cards. This is a situation where you need a much stronger hand than KQ.

It would be good to hear from the people who play at the high stakes SnG - on what they would do here.

Thanks for the insult.

I don't think that this decision is that difficult. I push, I'll take -EV but you've got to do something to get yourself out of this playing for 3rd situation.

Maybe if i was acutely aware that the two big stacks were calling with a lot at the table, I fold this but I really don't see myself not pushing this and ever regretting the decision.

-'rilla

Scuba chuck whats with the attitude - i'm not looking for a slaging match.

In future i won't waste my time with your posts.

Originally Posted by Gareth

Scuba chuck whats with the attitude - i'm not looking for a slaging match.

I'm not sure how many high stakes players there are on this forum, nor am I aware of your opinion of me. But, how am I supposed to take this comment in response to my post?

It would be good to hear from the people who play at the high stakes SnG - on what they would do here.

I take this as you completely disagree, and think I'm a crackpot, but you're not confident enough in your own opinion, so you're looking for someone else to side with you.

In future i won't waste my time with your posts.

Well, that's too bad for you, and won't hurt my feelings.

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

try to keep in mind your future EV in situations like this

I've reread this a few times now. And it still confuses me. Why do you advise to keep in mind future EV, and not consider the current EV? The only EV I'm considering at this stage, is finishing ITM.

Just some food for thought... Would your actions change if considering the EV, not for finishing ITM, but for finishing in 1st.

I'm still new to all of this lingo and what it means but I think I am catching on.

Everyone is looking at the EV for this particular hand. But what about your overal SNG EV. What I mean is... the ROI for playing SNGs.

If you take a chance here on a particular play that seems to have a - EV and you double up... how does this play out in the long term for you getting to 1st versus your possibly getting blinded out.

Another thing that just popped into my mind. Correct me where you think I'm off but by taking the risk here you could double up, steal the blinds or bust out. If you double up you are in a much better position for working your way up to 1st. Stealing the blinds would give you a few chips and might give the table an impression of being loose. If you bust, you are then able to move onto the next game.

Which move is better for the long term overal $$$ made in SNG's?


That being said... Based on my limited experience, i would make a min raise. And fold on any strong reraises. Any feedback on this particular action?

A min raise is a very bad idea. You should never minraise steal in a sng. With your 2bbs and the 1.5bb already in the pot, you're giving bb 3.5:1 to call and try to out flop you. And seeing flops with short short stacks can become difficult with a big pair.

-'rilla

scuba chuck,
Your posts really suck. I don't know if you read them before you post them , but your arrogance is extremely annoying, like you are the only one that knows how to play and we're all stupid. I suggest you read your posts before hitting the submit button and get rid of the "clearly you don't understand" and "think more, man" comments. Otherwise everyone will think you're just an arrogant ass. We're here to learn from each other, not be belittled by you.

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Let's be definitive here. Let's say this is a $109 buyin. And let's say this push is -$EV by -0.5%. Furthermore, let's assume our hero plays the $109s for a living, so on average he is playing ~ 10,000 SNGs a year. Furthermore, let's say he is presented with -0.5% -EV situations 50 times a month (or 600 times a year). Essentially, gamboooling it up here is costing our hero $32,700 a year. So, if you're a gambooler, then you have quite a few leaks to plug in your game.

I can't believe I made that big of a mistake. My above statement is incorrect, mathematically. I multiplied 109 times 50%, not 0.5%, which should have yielded 54 cents per tourney, times 600 tourneys, for a sum total of $327 annually. That's a two decimal mistake (bleh).

I made a second mistake as well (I was writing furiously, but even I make mistakes). Furthermore, that 0.5% is supposed to be applied to the equity prize pool ($1,000) not the buyin ($109). So the real sum total should be , $3,000.

Sorry for the confusion.

Scuba Chuck's posts are good, please don't run him off the board.

What about the argument that, although this has been shown to be a -EV push, it may well be the least -EV situation you are going to see, and as such you should push?

Originally Posted by konahead

scuba chuck,
Your posts really suck.

Otherwise everyone will think you're just an arrogant ass.

Please feel free not to read my posts. Whatever sound reasons they may be.

Originally Posted by Nubb

Just some food for thought... Would your actions change if considering the EV, not for finishing ITM, but for finishing in 1st.

EV analysis considers this result. That's why it's such a powerful tool, if the math behind the calculation is correct. In particular, the math I'm referring to here is the independent chip model (ICM) calculator.

http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html

Here's the cruxt of the difference between our normal logic, and the results of the Independent Chip Model.

Let's say we're on the bubble, and the stacks look like the following

BB: t6000
SB: t1000
button: t500
UTG: t500

As you can see, BB has 75% of the total chips in play. So, it would make sense, logically, that he should currently own 75% of the equity prize pool. But the independent chip model, correctly reflects that BB has only 44.5% of the equity prize pool. (In fact, it's impossible to have more than 50% of the equity prize pool, even if you have 99% of the chips.)

Furthermore, the t500 stacks only have 6.25% of the total outstanding chips, but they each own about 15.5% of the equity prize pool.

Why is this?

Well, Sklansky makes this argument (Can't remember if this is Theory of Poker or Tournament Poker for Advanced Players) that the more chips you have the less value each chip has, and that when you have fewer chips, those chips are worth more. ICM completely reflects that. If you start piecing together the potential outcomes to battles above, you can begin to see that even having the big stack at this stage does not guarantee that he will finish ITM. (It also should reflect why it's important to be liberal in your calling standards as the bigstack as well)

Another logical conclusion from the above analysis can be taken from the WSOP. The WSOP is played until there is one man left standing, with all of the chips. Those chips reflect every single dollar in the prize pool. But does he win the whole prize pool? No. So each cheap is actually worth less (to the chip holder) if he holds more than the average, and is worth more to those chip holders who hold less than the average.

Originally Posted by konahead

Keep in mind that your stack is still big enough to hurt the big stack and a push from UTG is a lot scarier than a push from the button, even 4 handed.

Do all the math you want, folding KQo UTG 4-handed is a bad move. It's a damn fine hand w 4 players. Push it.

ugh. comeon man!
I mean the point is that we give a value to each chip we gain and how much $ they are worth to us in the overall scheme of the SNG.

We analyze factors including calling ranges to tell us whether or not this push will make us money or not.

This has nothing to do with whether or not it is wrong or right to fold KQ 4 handed. You arent looking at the approach we are taking in the right way.

You talk about being scared. What does that imply? That implies that people will change their calling ranges. Do we factor that into our calculations? Yes we do. IN fact we factor it in more precisely than you can, and from that we can tell you that this is indeed a bad push most of the time.

Conditional Probability. Being scared can be factored into everything. The only issue is how precise you are. (Even that is considered in all the calculations we have done thus far)

Originally Posted by konahead

scuba chuck,
Your posts really suck. I don't know if you read them before you post them , but your arrogance is extremely annoying, like you are the only one that knows how to play and we're all stupid. I suggest you read your posts before hitting the submit button and get rid of the "clearly you don't understand" and "think more, man" comments. Otherwise everyone will think you're just an arrogant ass. We're here to learn from each other, not be belittled by you.

Kona, dont owrry it about it man!

Hes just tyring to take u off the well beaten path by leading you in a idfferent direction. He isnt giving u a direct answer, but it doesnt mean hes not trying to help.

I hope u dont take things he says as a direct attack on you.

Sometimes I just dont understand, and it helps me to have someone tell me that I suck. Like when I made a mistake in that 30+3 thread. Folding a flush on the river? I just wasnt paying attention and someone told me. Please dont take it too seriously.

If you have any other problems we can handle it over PMs.
-vqc
(guys scuba might not post int he same tone we are all used to, but he has very good advice, and he is a very good player)

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

A min raise is a very bad idea. You should never minraise steal in a sng. With your 2bbs and the 1.5bb already in the pot, you're giving bb 3.5:1 to call and try to out flop you. And seeing flops with short short stacks can become difficult with a big pair.

-'rilla

i disagree. i hardly ever do it, but if the table folds to minraises, theres nothing wrong with min raising.

Originally Posted by Gareth

Scuba chuck whats with the attitude - i'm not looking for a slaging match.

In future i won't waste my time with your posts.

Gareth please read wat I said to Kona.

If you ignore his posts, you will be ignoring a very good players advice. Dont take wat he says personally please.

How many hands until the blinds go up?

Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

How many hands until the blinds go up?

Unless the blinds go up the very next hand, it isn't relevant here.

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Conditional Probability. Being scared can be factored into everything. The only issue is how precise you are. (Even that is considered in all the calculations we have done thus far)

Conditional probability is the probability that something will happen based on the probability of a previous action.
You are talking about Bayes' theorem.

Also, while you are taking EV of this push into account with your calculations of ICM, you are not taking into account The effect that posting the blinds will have on your stack.

Yes, future pushes will be more +EV in relation to your stack, but your stack will have been decreased by 20% after the next 2 hands. Your fold equity will also be greatly decreased, and if blinds increase in the next orbit, you will be effectively dead to luck.

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

How many hands until the blinds go up?

Unless the blinds go up the very next hand, it isn't relevant here.

It is relevant if the blinds go up next hand (which makes this push clearly +EV) in 2 hands, or any time in the next orbit, which is likely at Party.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Also, while you are taking EV of this push into account with your calculations of ICM, you are not taking into account The effect that posting the blinds will have on your stack.

Yes, future pushes will be more +EV in relation to your stack, but your stack will have been decreased by 20% after the next 2 hands. Your fold equity will also be greatly decreased, and if blinds increase in the next orbit, you will be effectively dead to luck.

Finally, our first logical reason to move allin here. Yes, it is correct that ICM does not take into consideration position. ICM, obviously, does not take into account players ability either. This is why I originally pointed out the decision to let shorty take a chance at making a mistake here.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Conditional Probability. Being scared can be factored into everything. The only issue is how precise you are. (Even that is considered in all the calculations we have done thus far)

Conditional probability is the probability that something will happen based on the probability of a previous action.
You are talking about Bayes' theorem.

Also, while you are taking EV of this push into account with your calculations of ICM, you are not taking into account The effect that posting the blinds will have on your stack.

Yes, future pushes will be more +EV in relation to your stack, but your stack will have been decreased by 20% after the next 2 hands. Your fold equity will also be greatly decreased, and if blinds increase in the next orbit, you will be effectively dead to luck.

I suck at life =(

yes i meant bayes theorem