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Possible fold range for big stack

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  1. #1

    Default Possible fold range for big stack

    PokerStars Game #6318680029: Tournament #32054937 $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2006/09/17 - 12:35:12 (ET)
    Table '32054937 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: flopylugs (435 in chips)
    Seat 2: Pulpstar (5105 in chips)
    Seat 5: bevvy 69 (7960 in chips)
    flopylugs: posts the ante 25
    Pulpstar : posts the ante 25
    bevvy 69: posts the ante 25
    Pulpstar : posts small blind 100
    bevvy 69: posts big blind 200

    Holecards:
    Dealt to Pulpstar 8s 6s
    RAISE flopylugs, 210 to 410 and is all-in
    CALL Pulpstar , 310
    FOLD bevvy 69

    Shouldn't bevvy69 here call with any two cards ? - Well this was my plan , since my hand was likely not dominated I figured if bevvy called with his really juicy pot odds then flopylugs is heading out !

    the fold threw me to be honest
    BR As at 24-10-06 1:57 AM $2222

    Currently playing $50 NL hold em, $25 PL Omaha/$50 Omaha hi-lo, $15 SnGs
    EPT Dublin played
  2. #2
    Mathematically it's a bad fold. The fact that he has the chance to bust someone for cheap makes it a bad fold.
    TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
  3. #3
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    i think your call is what threw him off. I think if you fold, he calls any day. And he's probably got a better hand than 86s, meaning it's probably in your best interest to fold here and let bevvy's random hand do the calling.
  4. #4
    Mathematically it's a bad fold. The fact that he has the chance to bust someone for cheap makes it a bad fold.
    How is it a bad fold for BB? I don't see why it is mathematically incorrect to fold when SB called the raise. I would fold in this situation if SB called. If SB had folded I would have called. I believe that huge stack made the correct decision because he did not want to "donate" any more money to the pot.
  5. #5
    ~200 to call in an ~1100 chip pot is a good fold? You'd be "donating" like 2% of your stack. Any 2 cards and I call here.
  6. #6
    The 2% donation may suck you into a hand and that may cost a large amount of your stack. There's no logic to your statement.
    I ran the hand SB in poker stove against 1 opp. and against 2 opp. Assuming that the hands for both unknown opp. are random hands.
    According to poker stove, SB Equity against two random hands is about 33% and against a single opp. his equity is about 46%. Therefore, SB total equity if BB calls all the way to showdown is 15% equity that he will win both main pot and side pot. But you will argue that the side pot is larger than the main pot, therefore SB would have an equity of 46% against BB. This is a huge iff, if BB calls all the way to the showdown, SB equity is less than 50% and the worse case scenario is BB wins the side pot, thus eliminating SB, and UTG wins the main pot thus moving his position to second. Do you think this is worth the risk to finish third and gamble it?
    The way I see it is that BB did not know if SB was going to check all the way to the river. If BB had knowledge that SB wouldn't create a side pot and check all the way to the river, BB would call because this would increase the chances of eliminating the short stack only if SB checked all the way to the river. If SB is going to be greed and try to win it all in this hand, then BB decision is correct to fold because he is giving a chance for SB to lose some of his stack if SB loses. And even if SB wins and eliminates the UTG, the chips gained from the confrotation does not help SB stack that much.
    I would like to know how would you play SB (8s 6s) if BB re-raised all-in? Would you call or would you fold?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    The 2% donation may suck you into a hand and that may cost a large amount of your stack. There's no logic to your statement.
    The only way it will cost a large portion of my stack is if there is a cooler. Please don't assume I'm a nub and if I'm calling with 9T (or something similar) I'm stacking off if a 9 falls. This is just silly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    I ran the hand SB in poker stove against 1 opp. and against 2 opp. Assuming that the hands for both unknown opp. are random hands.
    According to poker stove, SB Equity against two random hands is about 33% and against a single opp. his equity is about 46%. Therefore, SB total equity if BB calls all the way to showdown is 15% equity that he will win both main pot and side pot.
    I don't really understand why you're making this so complicated?

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    But you will argue that the side pot is larger than the main pot, therefore SB would have an equity of 46% against BB.
    What side pot? There is no side pot yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    This is a huge iff, if BB calls all the way to the showdown, SB equity is less than 50% and the worse case scenario is BB wins the side pot, thus eliminating SB, and UTG wins the main pot thus moving his position to second. Do you think this is worth the risk to finish third and gamble it?
    We're not allin so again I don't understand your point?

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    The way I see it is that BB did not know if SB was going to check all the way to the river.
    Right, I was speaking on behalf of the bb with the sb calling. I guess the bb was bad and does not understand the whole "check through" unless someone hits something.

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    If BB had knowledge that SB wouldn't create a side pot and check all the way to the river, BB would call because this would increase the chances of eliminating the short stack only if SB checked all the way to the river. If SB is going to be greed and try to win it all in this hand, then BB decision is correct to fold because he is giving a chance for SB to lose some of his stack if SB loses.
    Or if you call with 95 and flop a big hand, and sb is still trying to be greedy, you will win the tournament? I just don't understand why you're going so deep into this because the only point I was making was he was getting 5.5:1 on his money to see a flop, costing him ~2% of his stack. He is no where near committed and it increases the chances of eliminating the shortie by a large margain.

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    And even if SB wins and eliminates the UTG, the chips gained from the confrotation does not help SB stack that much.
    Right, but adding 1k to your stack isn't a bad thing either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Erudito
    I would like to know how would you play SB (8s 6s) if BB re-raised all-in? Would you call or would you fold?
    Um... fold? What kind of a question is this????
  8. #8
    Of course I fold if the big stack pushes ! And I'm only betting if I hit 2 pair or better ! If BB bluffs me off the pot when I have less than 2 pair, I am folding.

    I know my equity with a hand like 6s 8s is better 3 way than 2 way so thats why I went into the pot.

    Does the big stack honestly think I'll throw him off the pot with a bluff ?? Thats greedy poker and just plain wrong here !

    Hes got to be less than 16% 3 way for it to be a good fold. Actually thats just with his chips, and since they get less valuable the more he has, its probably good with > 13% or so.

    And if I bluff and he flops a good hand, hes taking me out the tourney in one go if I really am a terrible player.

    Anyway I just concluded he was a donk ! But I don't think a good bigstack almost ever folds here. If I was the bigstack I certainly call.

    Edit: Just checked bevvy 69 on sharkscope.com, and though he beat me in this SnG the guy is a total fish
    BR As at 24-10-06 1:57 AM $2222

    Currently playing $50 NL hold em, $25 PL Omaha/$50 Omaha hi-lo, $15 SnGs
    EPT Dublin played

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