Overpair & a drawy flop

Early in Party 300k Gtd.

- Push flop, or
- Call and evaluate turn (shove blank, fold otherwise)


***** Hand History for Game 5943599991 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 33283896 Level: 3 Blinds(50/100) - Sunday, May 06, 13:44:22 ET 2007
Table $300K Guaranteed Sunday (1007967) Table #69 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: johnny2912 ( 5,890 )
Seat 2: DjangoJack ( 10,480 )
Seat 3: CatalaV ( 4,250 )
Seat 5: MrGadgetsUK ( 9,085 )
Seat 7: mr_suspekt ( 5,195 )
Seat 8: UnFaithFuL1 ( 7,556 )
Seat 9: ATCFaust ( 7,280 )
Seat 4: Rosinen ( 3,441 )
Seat 6: rilleg ( 4,966 )
Seat 10: derapfel ( 9,935 )
Trny: 33283896 Level: 3
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to johnny2912 [ Ks Kh ]
rilleg calls [100]
mr_suspekt calls [100]
UnFaithFuL1 folds
ATCFaust folds
derapfel folds
johnny2912 raises [400]
DjangoJack folds
CatalaV folds
Rosinen folds
MrGadgetsUK folds
rilleg calls [300]
mr_suspekt folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 8d, 7c ]
rilleg checks
johnny2912 bets [650]
rilleg raises [1,600]
johnny2912 ??

Gross spot. With no read on UTG limp feels like set or TT/66.... I guess call push blank seems right. What if he shoves a blank?

A call UTG followed by calling a raise OOP definatley would not outflop you on this most of the time. I would say we are ahead here. Aside from that, I would always be putting in another raise here. This board is definatley too scary to be playing so passive on as to call/fold. I don't mind forcing him to fold if it means saving a crippling blow. Any 10, 6, or diamond really leaves us in the dark on the turn. I don't want to get in 1/3 of my stack (asusming you call the flop and re-eval) just to fold because of a bad card hitting. If it blanks, we can't expect much action from a missed draw anyways, so we don't gain any future bets from smooth calling here. Id bump to 3600 to committ myself here, while still holding the slim chance your opp might misread your raise as a bluff and push - we already know we are calling.

Thoughts? Im trying to get better at Mtt's. Ive had some solid finishes.

A call UTG followed by calling a raise OOP definatley would not outflop you on this most of the time.

why do you think this? UTG limp/call my default assumption is low-mid PP.

i kinda agree with drmcboy. why don't we put this guy on a set?

this is a horrid spot. can you beat him with hands he could be limping with? would he raise you with 33?

i say he'd raise with 999, 888, 777, 89, 78, 97. if he is a good player he wants to chase you out of your draw.

he'd probably also raise with TT,JJ,QQ,AA... for the same reason.... but would he limp/call with those?

i'd say if he had a straight he'd probably just call. if he was on a strong draw he would just call.

but he RAISED... after a limp. he must have hit something big. or he has A9 of clubs... a hand he might limp with.

i say he would not limp with TT, JJ, QQ, .. all hands you have beat right now. i don't think he would raise with JT, 56, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22.... other hands he might limp with.

so basically... he has to have A9 or A7d for you to be ahead... 2 hands.

999, 888, 777, 89, 78, 79 for you to be behind. and you'll be behind if he has a really good draw.

damn.... is it wrong to fold this? it is pretty early in the tourney. you could flop a set of 7's in 10 minutes.