|
|
 Originally Posted by fulksy
but its not necessarily one or the other just because you take one +EV doesn't mean your have to give up another.
You have to give up the future positive gamble if in the first one you get eliminated from the tournament. (Or crippled, in which case the subsequent chance for a double-up won't be as helpful as it would have been.)
Seems situations change to much to realistically determine whether a better EV spot will come.
We obviously can't determine whether it'll come or not, but I believe the chance of it can be estimated. Then we could model the EV-of-folding-now-then-playing-one-orbit with the assumption that opponents' stack sizes, players' tendencies, etc. don't change. In the long run the positive events (big stacks clashing, neighbours tightening up, etc.) and the negative events (shorties doubling up, neighbours loosening up, etc.) should cancel each other out, no?
|
Reply With Quote