Nitty bubble fold?

22$ mtt ongane 36 left 34 pay average around 11k.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $400(BB) On Game
SB ($10,211)
BB ($5,290)
UTG ($2,915)
UTG+1 ($11,752)
Hero ($9,390)
MP1 ($7,220)
CO ($5,959)
BTN ($31,778)

Dealt to Hero J J

fold, UTG+1 raises to $1,000, Hero calls $1,000, fold, fold, BTN calls $1,000, SB calls $800, fold

FLOP ($4,720) 6 9 7

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $3,600, Hero

Open is 20/20 callers are both fish who are relatively passive and like 40/4 and 40/15 respectively. I flatted because I felt a was a little to deep to shove and a few guys are aggro esp bb with 5k left. I get to this "safe" flop and when he bets this big into 3 others I think its TT+ ATs+ KJs with the fd. Gah hate folding though. Thoughts on pre /post?

Spoiler: Show

looking back ez shove

3bet small pre especially with really passive fish behind you who are going to overcall a lot and you'll easily be able to get it in over 2 streets

any option is better then calling pre... I'd 3bet to 1900 or so but shove is still >>>> call.

GL postflop.

Originally Posted by Sykedupp

shove is still >>>> call.

I disagree with this. I would call before I shoved.

Definitely 3bet though.

i think it's super close between shove/3b, hard to eval call without better reads so I would not do it here.

for the people who 3b, what size do you shove instead? I'd shove 7k- for sure and 3b (or call) 11k+, but in between i dunno.

For some reason I thought hero had 11k. Calling pf is definitely not good but I still think shoving is even worse.

I would usually shove 6k. I'm 3betting small with 8k and in between depends on the raiser and the people behind.

Interesting, I dont 3bet this size stack very often vs that open size, probably a leak. But yes I agree anything is probably better than flatting :s

For some reason I thought hero had 11k.

the HH is really confusing, hero/SB are not red.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

the HH is really confusing, hero/SB are not red.

Ah true, probably because those 2 went to showdown. Not helpful though :S

3b/c pre

as played get it in i think

only thing beating you are sets and QQ KK AA, UTG+1 having a set is unlikely tho with a continuation that big. Sounds like he is trying to protect his hand from AK, AQ types and flush draws so I would be more inclined to think something like TT. Or could just have air hoping no one hit that flop. But with 2 ppl to act you could still be facing a set as they were getting implied odds to call preflop. I'm either folding or shoving here, usually shove (but hasn't always worked out that well in the past).

Preflop I'm not sure, I have difficulty playing jacks in these spots, I'm usually 3 betting to isolate (to avoid 4-way pots) but would maybe let it go to a 4bet shove as you're likely flipping at best.

i think i shove only overcards and top pairs are going to beat u . with the turn and river to come and no overcards go for it

A lot of it also depends on your bankroll. If you do not have a big bankroll and need this cash then fold but if your bankroll is good then shove with the jacks and try to win the tournament.

If he's not nitty, I'm pushing here. Lot of draws, but make him pay for them. You should have best hand more often than not.

Originally Posted by Credsfan03

A lot of it also depends on your bankroll. If you do not have a big bankroll and need this cash then fold but if your bankroll is good then shove with the jacks and try to win the tournament.

If the impact of losing a pot on your bankroll affects your decisions then the stakes you're playing are too high and you need to move down.

Originally Posted by Pascal

If the impact of losing a pot on your bankroll affects your decisions then the stakes you're playing are too high and you need to move down.

Great point. Paramount to make sure you buyin is only a small percentage of your bankroll.

Without proper bankroll management, variance will always wipe you out.