Mucking AK early?

I have to agree with TJ here for the most part. Im probly not going to take a 50/50 just to double up or gtfo, because i know most of my edge over everyone else is in my bubble play. Every sng i play however im going to be playing for first, not just to get itm. I dont think your necessarily putting yourself into a better position by not taking a flips, and definately not taking 60/40s, because on the bubble your going to have a small stack against several larger stacks most likely and in push or fold mode. I think i would rather have taken a 50/50 and have twice as big of a stack on the bubble and have a much higher profit expectation than being so short and just hoping noone wakes up with a hand when im pushing twice every orbit.

Its the people that are playing to itm every single sng that have the weakest bubble play because they are folding way to often and not pushing when they should.

LOL Retardaments

You guys are silly. Put the players on a range and put it into pokerstove. Let's put the coldcaller on a pair or a weak Ace. If he has an Ace then the original raiser can only have AA 1 way and KK 3 ways. If we shove the original raiser's calling range is pretty small this early. He can fold and still have a 2k stack. We then trap the coldcaller who we know at the worst we are flipping with and who we are more than likely a 70/30 favorite against.

If the original raiser somehow has AA/KK then we say gg and fire another SNG up.

I know this article has been beaten like a dead horse, but it is all I can find right now. If you have a membership to PXF, please review the sheets and inissint videos for the general principle for playing for ITM in SNGs. There IS a difference between SNGs and MTTs as to how you approach them. I'm not necessarily arguing about how to play OP's particular hand, just the general strategy of SNGs.

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-tip...0Lederer&tip=1

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If the original raiser somehow has AA/KK then we say gg and fire another SNG up.

QFT

This isn't a gamble at all. I've already posted several times in this thread, so I won't repeat myself. But a push is good here, and we are almost always ahead (usually flipping at worst).

This doesn't take away from the fact that in a SnG, you are playing to get ITM. Your goal should not be first before it is to be ITM.

Originally Posted by courtiebee

This doesn't take away from the fact that in a SnG, you are playing to get ITM. Your goal should not be first before it is to be ITM.

i thought playing for 1st implied to get ITM. and i do think it should be playing for 1st, not ITM.

on the bubble with 4 players, you should be gambling to get the big stack. and if you're the big stack already, it's not the time to sit back and let others bust each other out. the bubble is not the time to be passive, and that's a huge hole in some people's games. 1st pays almost 5 times better than 3rd.

On the bubble you should be applying pressure and not playing scared, but you shouldn't be gambling.

Originally Posted by courtiebee

On the bubble you should be applying pressure and not playing scared, but you shouldn't be gambling.

as you know, i muck AK. i consider 60/40 edge "gambling"

I disagree with a 60/40 edge being gambling. I'll take this edge any day because it will win me money. When I am ahead, I will put all my money in the middle.

Took a quick look at a few of my old HH's and within minutes came upon the below hand that illustrates what donks will raise big and call with.

This was a $15+1 SNG on Stars

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t1075)
SB (t1465)
BB (t1880)
UTG (t520)
UTG+1 (t1880)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1165)
MP3 (t1445)
CO (t2560)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, 4.
UTG calls t30, 2 folds, MP2 calls t30, 3 folds, SB raises to t270, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP2 calls t240.

Flop: (t600) Q, 8, 7 (2 players)
SB bets t1195 (All-In), MP2 calls t895 (All-In).

Turn: (t2690) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t2690) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t2690

Results in white below:
SB has 8h 4c (two pair, eights and fours).
MP2 has Ks Js (flush, king high).
Outcome: MP2 wins t2390. SB wins t300.

I can't believe we are still having this discussion about playing for 1st vs playing for 3rd. In every situation we make the play that is the most +$EV. Sometimes that means playing for 1st, and sometimes it means playing for 3rd.

It is worth noting that the payout structure in single table SNGs is very steep between 3rd and 4th but relatively shallow after that (as opposed to big MTTs where ITM more or less just gets you your buyin back whilst 1st and 2nd place gets you several hundred times your buyin). This means that there are often situations where playing for ITM is the most +$EV move.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

as you know, i muck AK. i consider 60/40 edge "gambling"

Are you telling me that in OP's hand if the initial raiser said "I have QJs and will call if you shove" that you would fold knowing that you were a 60/40 favourite considering the dead chips in the pot?

Originally Posted by taipan168

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

as you know, i muck AK. i consider 60/40 edge "gambling"

Are you telling me that in OP's hand if the initial raiser said "I have QJs and will call if you shove" that you would fold knowing that you were a 60/40 favourite considering the dead chips in the pot?

clearly that's a call.

if opponent tells me he's got QQ, that's a different story. i still fold.

the big raise with the cold call makes me believe we are dealing with PPs here a lot of the time.

also, some people are overvaluing AK's true value here.

(46C16)/(52C16) = 9.5% is the probability of none of the other 8 players having any one of your 6 outs. which means 90% of the time, you don't have the full 6 outs.

Wow, this is the post that won't die.

The more I analyze this... the more convinced I am that folding is a mistake. If I played it again, I would get it all in.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

also, some people are overvaluing AK's true value here.

AKs is so sexy, I love it and almost never fold it in tournaments.

Originally Posted by Renton

AKs is actually over 40% to win against a range of exactly AK KK+.

Something written in a Beginners Circle thread. I suck at math and have no idea why this is true, but I think it's great to keep in mind. When I have AKs and I remember this, I can think to myself that I KNOW that my opponent's range is WAY bigger than AK, KK+ and then I have no problem instapushing.

Originally Posted by courtiebee

Originally Posted by Renton

AKs is actually over 40% to win against a range of exactly AK KK+.

Something written in a Beginners Circle thread. I suck at math and have no idea why this is true, but I think it's great to keep in mind. When I have AKs and I remember this, I can think to myself that I KNOW that my opponent's range is WAY bigger than AK, KK+ and then I have no problem instapushing.

you're tieing vs AKs and AKo, 50%. 30% vs KK, 12% vs AA. so it averages out to 40% (if you do the math 50/50/30/12 it's 35.5, but there's more ways to get AK than the pairs).

does this hand make me a hypocrite?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 (t1430)
CO (t1445)
Button (t1330)
Hero (t1420)
BB (t1150)
UTG (t1945)
UTG+1 (t1560)
MP1 (t1470)
MP2 (t1750)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t150, MP1 calls t150, 1 fold, MP3 calls t150, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1420

awesome,

you won right?

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

does this hand make me a hypocrite?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 (t1430)
CO (t1445)
Button (t1330)
Hero (t1420)
BB (t1150)
UTG (t1945)
UTG+1 (t1560)
MP1 (t1470)
MP2 (t1750)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t150, MP1 calls t150, 1 fold, MP3 calls t150, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1420

Super duper easy push this one!

Originally Posted by swiggidy

awesome,

you won right?

1 guy called. his jacks didn't hold up.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by swiggidy

awesome,

you won right?

1 guy called. his jacks didn't hold up.

Dead chips + fold equity = gogogo!

Originally Posted by taipan168

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by swiggidy

awesome,

you won right?

1 guy called. his jacks didn't hold up.

Dead chips + fold equity = gogogo!