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ICM question..
Single table SNG 1500 starting stack super turbo
100/200 blinds no antes
UTG $1215 folds
MP $1650 folds
BTN $1765 folds
SB $7400 shoves
Hero BB $1270 holds
villain has been shoving atleast twice per orbit, gotten lucky a few times, woke up with a few hands, I think its safe to say with my stack size hes pushing close to 80% here. maybe more, but 80% surely.
my question is even though im ahead of his range, 58%>41% , how can i calculate if im ICM correct?
i have setup the ICM calc on chillen411 and its as follows
UTG $1215 (.129)
MP $1650 (.167)
BTN $1765 (.176)
SB $7400 (.384)
Hero BB $1270 (.143)
so if SB shoves, theres 3 out comes,
i fold (-0.08) *corrected
UTG $1215 (.130)
MP $1650 (.168)
BTN $1765 (.177)
SB $7400 (.388)
Hero BB $1270 (.135)
i call and win (+0.09)
UTG $1215 (.114)
MP $1650 (.150)
BTN $1765 (.159)
SB $6030 (.343)
Hero BB $2940 (.233)
i call and lose (0)
UTG $1215 (.161)
MP $1650 (.204)
BTN $1765 (.213)
SB $9070 (.421)
Hero BB $0(.0)
so 58% of the time i win +0.09
41% of the time i lose -0.143
EV= - 0.64??
some one help me out please. lol
update**
I did some more research and found that calling and losing doesn't equal (-0.143) it actually equal 0.
so if I have 58% vs villians range and my prize pool equity if I win is .233 then
(.58 * .233) + (.41 * 0) = .13514
if we fold our equity will drop to .135
comparing:
folding = .135
calling = .135
EV neutral then??
lets say he shoves 100% instead.
(.60 * .233) + (.40 * 0) = .139
comparing:
folding = .135
calling = .139
that's sick that he can shove 20% more hands and still put us in a bad spot.
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