Final table.... EZ call or EZ fold

I've been on a pretty decent run of cards the last 3-4 orbits or so. I've reraised a raiser 3 times in those orbits (with TT, JJ, and QQ) recently and took them down preflop, so some may think i'm just bullying....


#Game No : 4324014713
***** Hand History for Game 4324014713 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:23845197 Level:19 Blinds-Antes(15000/30000-700) - Sunday, May 21, 04:19:22 ET 2006
Table Regular(701800) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: xFast_Eddie ( $218876 )
Seat 3: fundoc ( $576713 )
Seat 4: rocko55 ( $330363 )
Seat 5: fbizzy ( $338584 )
Seat 6: HuenemeSlick ( $321748 )
Seat 7: margar7 ( $91388 )
Seat 8: metterhasace ( $601733 )
Seat 10: azimm4 ( $1054595 )
Trny:23845197 Level:19
Blinds-Antes(15000/30000-700)
xFast_Eddie posts ante [700].
fundoc posts ante [700].
rocko55 posts ante [700].
fbizzy posts ante [700].
HuenemeSlick posts ante [700].
margar7 posts ante [700].
metterhasace posts ante [700].
azimm4 posts ante [700].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to azimm4 [ Js Ks ]
margar7 folds.
metterhasace folds.
azimm4 raises [90000].
xFast_Eddie folds.
fundoc folds.
rocko55 folds.
fbizzy is all-In [322884]
HuenemeSlick folds.
azimm4.............

first look at the odds :

pot size : ~460,000

cost to call : ~230,000

pot odds : ~2/1

your stack if you fold: ~960,000
your stack if you call and lose: ~728,000
your stack if you call and win: ~1,272,000

pick a range of hands you think he makes this with. if hes more than a 2/1 favorite against you, its a fold.

theres argument for folding already just because an increase in chips here isnt really going to give you that much more of an advatage over your field.

your raise was from 3rd position, keep that in mind. people will respect this a lot more than a CO, btn, or sb raise.

this range is probably a little off since i dont know how aggressive you were and the type of player the reraiser was. imo there isnt much argument for calling

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,438,335,360 games 2.235 secs 643,550,496 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.9626 % 29.55% 00.41% { KJo }
Hand 2: 70.0374 % 69.62% 00.41% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

I really think your range is a little too tight for the average $1 and $2 mtt'r. While this hand was playing out, I figured i was roughly behind 60/40 just off the top of my head. And like you said, I was getting close to 2:1 odds, so I insta called.

I really think most players at these stakes know enough that they can't call 1/3 rd of their stack with a mid pair but figure they might as well race against 2 overs, here's what I came up with..... if you tighten the pairs up to 77+, it comes out right at 2:1.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.2239 % 38.93% 00.30% { KJs }
Hand 2: 60.7761 % 60.48% 00.30% { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }

This looks like one of those situations were I can't fault you for a call or a fold.

fijuanl pretty much summed up the math part of it really well, although I agree the range should be a little more loose.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

This looks like one of those situations were I can't fault you for a call or a fold.

So what would YOU do in this spot, and why?

i think this is a spot where math isnt really that important. you've got a pretty commanding lead at the table. getting another 300k isnt really going to help that much...while losing 300k might force you to be a little tigher. you already have 35BB, getting to 45BB isnt that great, theres nothing thats really going to benefit you from gaining 10BB here. imo its more important to keep your chiplead.

donk players at this $1-$2 MTTs are going to pay you off and continue to make mistakes...they'll be plenty more opportunities for them to get thier chips in when their are way behind.

I think you can fold here. _any_ ace is ahead of you, and you are racing a pair. I think the loose range is probably appropriate (66/AT), but that assumes that p(AT) = p(AK), which is false. I am sure he is pushing with AK here... AT, not so much.

300K is still ~1/3rd of your stack.

A call is not horrible though.

Originally Posted by fjuanl

getting another 300k isnt really going to help that much...while losing 300k might force you to be a little tigher. you already have 35BB, getting to 45BB isnt that great, theres nothing thats really going to benefit you from gaining 10BB here. imo its more important to keep your chiplead.

donk players at this $1-$2 MTTs are going to pay you off and continue to make mistakes...they'll be plenty more opportunities for them to get thier chips in when their are way behind.

I agree with everything except for the part I bolded. We're at the FT. The extra 300k not only helps him because it will allow him to continue to steal blinds aggressively and maintain his chip lead, but more importantly the 300k will KNOCK OUT one of the 8 remaining players and make your goal of a First place finish that much closer.

I think this hand does come down to putting your opp on a range and then making your decision based on pot odds for that range.

ah good point, i forget this was at the FT.

u also might want to consider how easily you can gain back those 3bb's if you decide to fold. it looks like you have a pretty good table position and can lean on the shorties and midstacks, but how tight are the players directly to your left? If your image isnt complete trash and you think you can pretty easily get a stealing opportunity, I think it might be worth folding. (i cant see this being a possibility since you say people think your bullying...and its a $1 mtt and people play way to many hands)