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$22+2 Full tilt double gutshot + 2 overs

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  1. #1

    Default $22+2 Full tilt double gutshot + 2 overs

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 24 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG (t1365)
    MP (t2625)
    Hero (Button) (t1805)
    SB (t1300)
    BB (t1905)

    Hero's M: 15.04

    Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
    2 folds, Hero bets t240, 1 fold, BB calls t160

    Flop: (t520) 10, J, 8 (2 players)
    BB bets t1665 (All-In), Hero ?

    Villian was loose aggro


  2. #2
    I think this is close but I would fold, I don't think you have pot odds against his likely range since there aren't enough dead chips in the pot. Happy to have a discussion about his range:

    Board: Th Jd 8c
    Dead:

    equity win tie
    Hand 0: 59.781% 53.73% 06.06% { 88+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
    Hand 1: 40.219% 34.16% 06.06% { AcQs }
  3. #3
    Given the preflop action and the fact that he is loose aggro I think is likely range is:88, 99,KJ, KQ, A8,A9,AT, 89, 9T, JT, QT, QJ, Q9, 87,8T, J9 with about 10-15% of a total bluff


  4. #4
    fulksy's Avatar
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    is their any way to adjust his range to weigh heavier towards certain hands since its very unlikely he's shoving 2 pair+ (probably rarely shoving an over pair here too). that eliminates quite a few hands.
    Last edited by fulksy; 02-21-2010 at 02:22 PM. Reason: spelling
  5. #5

    Default Live Play

    I play live 3-4 times a week at the local Casino... I have had a lot of trouble getting unlucky.... Flopping sets and they always hit there draw. Whether the style of approach i take towards the hand the outcome stays the same. I double them up.Slow playing to coming out firing hard, they either call or bet into me and I call or raise and sure enough, I double them up...... And I'm not talking about just flopping sets, I mean having the nut either on the Flop or Turn and losing the hand at the very end.... I've been playing for a long time and can't figure whether I'm on the worst run ever or the style of play at the local casino's are just gamble all the time....
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by TLR View Post
    Given the preflop action and the fact that he is loose aggro I think is likely range is:88, 99,KJ, KQ, A8,A9,AT, 89, 9T, JT, QT, QJ, Q9, 87,8T, J9 with about 10-15% of a total bluff
    If you include all these hands and the total bluff then I think you have to call, but I'm not delighted about doing so

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