$10 (18 player) -- Final Three

$10 18 player on Full Tilt. The button knew he was desperate and I had him on the top 40-50% of hands. The big stack in the SB was showing no inclination towards picking a fight with either of us small stacks and seemed content to let us duke it out.

Payout structure: 3rd $36 2nd $54 1st $72

Thanks!

Table 2 - 300/600 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:23:15 ET - 2007/12/17
Seat 3: Button (1,965)
Seat 5: SB (21,320)
Seat 7: Hero (3,715)
Button posts the small blind of 300
Hero posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [9h 5c]
Button raises to 1,965, and is all in
SB folds
Hero calls 1,365
Button shows [8c Jc]
Hero shows [9h 5c]
*** FLOP *** [Jd 2h Ts]
*** TURN *** [Jd 2h Ts] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [Jd 2h Ts 6d] [2c]
Button shows two pair, Jacks and Twos
Hero shows a pair of Twos
Button wins the pot (4,230) with two pair, Jacks and Twos
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,230 | Rake 0

I'm not so sure about this one because I don't have a program to run it through... But I'm more comfortable pushing this hand than calling with it for some reason. I'd really like to hear what everyone else has to say though.

Originally Posted by Im_new

I'm not so sure about this one because I don't have a program to run it through... But I'm more comfortable pushing this hand than calling with it for some reason. I'd really like to hear what everyone else has to say though.

I actually just did the math (and I hope it's right, used pen+paper) and it looks like according to the Independent Chip Model I made the right move, with an expected equity gain of about $3.50. Do you know what software could do this kind of stuff?

EDIT: Sit-n-Go wizard told me to fold and shows the expected equity before/after as being almost dead even, so maybe I did something wrong.

I'd fold. You should definetly be calling wide here, but 95o is a little too weak. I might have added wrong but it looks like your getting 2/1 on the call. I ran 95o vs a 40% range and your around 34% (need to be 40% for it to be breakeven)

The key thing is that the shortstack is to your left, which means you can push into him from the SB and have a good amount of fold equity. Its not a terrible call though

I don't think this is a terrible call either but on balance I'd fold for the reasons that fjuanl set out.

Thanks for the advice all, I appreciate it. I was wondering what you might think of it in light of some ICM calculations I did. Do you guys generally take ICM calculations seriously, or do you find it to be mostly not useful/inaccurate?

The way I figured it was that If I had folded, the ICM situation would be $67.57 (big stack)/$47.67 (Hero)/$46.76 (short stack). If I had called and lost, the new ICM would be $68.46 (big stack)/$49.33 (former short stack)/ $44.21 (Hero). If I had called and won, Big stack would be $68.01 and Hero would be $57.99.

So a call and win, assuming I'm a 66% to 33% dog, would net Hero $10.32 1 times out of 3.

A call and lose, which would happen 2 times out of 3, would net Hero -$3.46.

So that would indicate an expected gain of $3.40. What do you all think?

Thanks again.

shove the hand before this