Quote Originally Posted by Sheetah
Hand 9:
Quote Originally Posted by kettleofish
I've a sneaking suspicion my play in that last hand will lose me more matches than it'll win
If you mean turn c/r and river shove, I strongly agree.

Lets go street by street:
Preflop: his call means [censored] - a.k.a. any two
Flop: it's time to narrow his range ... strong bet is definitely something ... since he gravitates towards passive side draw is less likely, but remote possibility ... made hand is more likely - what made hands? ... PPs? everything but 33 55 66 crushes you ... 42? ... or [7, something] provided something =/= A, 4, 2 ... and he bet 100 into 40 pot
Turn: now he pots it By now it's pretty clear he's not semi bluffing but betting a made hand and you RAISE !???
River: desperate shove that will get you burned way more often than not.

The only hand you could hope him to have is luckily the one he had. And speaking of luck - in order that to happen both of you had to have for ex. 7 and you to have higher second card (what are the odds on that?) and flop comes 7 high and since both of you have it there are only two remaining that should come on the flop ... In a weird sense you committed your stack on two outer. Very lucky!

As you get more experience (and in case you know but forgot somehow) you'll notice that fishy gamblers chase all the time, but once they hit - they get impatient and try to get paid right away -> fear of their overbets. Folding on this flop and passing marginal 'edge' is not weak; folding on the turn is way better than raising. Sure enough, sometimes they'll donk with their smallish top pair like this one, but once again: what are the odds on that!?
Great (and very useful) analysis Sheetah. Helped open my eyes a bit. My only query is the bit I bolded. With K7, I tend to think theres a very good chance I have the best kicker, which is why I initially felt this hand was good (other than the turn raise). I also see guys get very excited about any pair on a flop like that, so wouldnt have been surprised to see he had middle pair or something.

That said, your reasoning is sound. Hero is dominating, so why risk it on this hand, when villian is showing strength, even if we think theres a chance we're ahead, its probably not worth the risk.