Top Two Pair Facing Triple Barrel on 3-flush Board

[abelardx]

write down YOUR range on river. (if its really wide perhaps you should have folded some hands in it somewhere on earlier streets)

call top 67%.

take a note if he shows up with something interesting. If his value range is narrow, that means he can have very few bluffs given his sizing, so if he shows up betting AJ only a fraction of the time and he only value bets flushes+ you are correct to call. theory wise you may be able to fold KQ depending on how you play flushes and boats on earlier streets.

CO opens, and I might flat otb with any of:

• JJ-22, AQ-AT, KQ, QJ, suited broadway, A2s+, 54s+

The blinds fold.


The flop is 6d Qh Jd.

CO bets about half pot, and I flat with:

• AQ-AT, KQ, KTs not dd, A9dd-A7dd, A5dd-A2dd, T9dd-87dd, 54dd

Since the flop is wet, I'd probably raise KK, AQ, QJ and sets.


The turn is Kd.

CO bets pot, and I flat with hands with a K, straights and flushes:

• AT, KQ, KTs not dd, A9dd-A7dd, A5dd-A2dd, T9dd-87dd, 54dd

I probably don't raise anything on the turn.

So my range on the river is:

• AT for a straight -> 16 combos, one of which is a straight flush
• KQ for top two -> 9 combos
• KTs not dd -> 3 combos
• A9-A7, A5-A2, all dd for the nut flush -> 7 combos
• T9dd-87dd, 54dd, non-nut flushes -> 4 combos

That is 39 combos. I should call the top 2/3 which is 26 combos:

• 7 nut flushes, I'd actually jam these
• 4 non-nut flushes
• 16 straights

That's 27 combos. So GTO-style (?), I should fold the 9 combos of top two and the 3 combos of top pair, which I think is probably the correct thing in my games, anyway.