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Required Equity versus pot odds
I was trying to analyze this hand below someone posted on another forum, when I got to the river I was trying to calculate Required Equity ( thats what pokerstrategy calls it I don't know the other names for it ) the formula is :
(Price of calling)/ (Pot+Price of calling)
when I plug these numbers in at the river we get
800/1800=.5 or 50% but when we look at the pot odds, We are getting a bit better than
2:1 on a call. With the pot odds we need to be correct 1 out of 3 times to make a call right? that means we would need 33% equity to break so why is the required Equity 50% if we are making money on any Equity after 33%?? Sorry about any confusion trying my best to be clear on where I am confused. You don't need to try and workout the hand with me I'm just curious about the Required Equity versus the pot odds here but if you are interested in the hand here it is .
5/10NL 500-NO MAX
Main game was full so we opened up the must move and were playing 8 handed
this is the second hand dealt at the table.
I played with this guy once before a while ago, older rec, loose passive who over-vaules his one pair holdings.
2500 effective in this hand.
Villain(3k) UTG+2 opens to 35
HJ/CUTOFF/BUTTON call and Hero(2500) calls in small blind calls with 78ss
BB comes along as well
pot-210
Flop
942sss
I check to pre flop raiser who bets 200
folds around I debate a check raise but decide to flat and take a turn.
pot-610
Turn Ks
I check and villain bets 200 again.
not loving the turn at all but I call.
River is complete brick 6d (brick)
check to villain who bets over pot $800
hero?
Villains range on river
All ATs+ with spades (AKs of spades isnt possible) thats 3 combos
3 combos of AKs (spades not possible) he could've fired a barrel on flop, turned a K and fired again.
9combos of AKo with A of spades makes sense given his line of play
AA , 6 combos
pocket KK , 3 combos
QQ w spade , 3 combos
JJ w spades 3 combos
99, 3 combos
AQ w spade 6 combos
AJ w spade 6 combos
I put the sets and AA in there because OP said villain was loose and overplayed hands .
when I input ranges on equilab we get a low equity of 36% versus Villains 64%, seems like a clear fold even if villain overplays sets and AA given the board texture I was just somewhat confused because pot odds say we need to be good 1 out of 3 and given these equities we are just above that but only if we assume villain overplays hands on such a bad board texture. I know this is a fold just saying the numbers are what I was confused of.
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