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Required Equity versus pot odds

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  1. #1

    Default Required Equity versus pot odds

    I was trying to analyze this hand below someone posted on another forum, when I got to the river I was trying to calculate Required Equity ( thats what pokerstrategy calls it I don't know the other names for it ) the formula is :

    (Price of calling)/ (Pot+Price of calling)

    when I plug these numbers in at the river we get

    800/1800=.5 or 50% but when we look at the pot odds, We are getting a bit better than
    2:1 on a call. With the pot odds we need to be correct 1 out of 3 times to make a call right? that means we would need 33% equity to break so why is the required Equity 50% if we are making money on any Equity after 33%?? Sorry about any confusion trying my best to be clear on where I am confused. You don't need to try and workout the hand with me I'm just curious about the Required Equity versus the pot odds here but if you are interested in the hand here it is .




    5/10NL 500-NO MAX
    Main game was full so we opened up the must move and were playing 8 handed
    this is the second hand dealt at the table.
    I played with this guy once before a while ago, older rec, loose passive who over-vaules his one pair holdings.
    2500 effective in this hand.

    Villain(3k) UTG+2 opens to 35
    HJ/CUTOFF/BUTTON call and Hero(2500) calls in small blind calls with 78ss
    BB comes along as well

    pot-210

    Flop
    942sss
    I check to pre flop raiser who bets 200
    folds around I debate a check raise but decide to flat and take a turn.

    pot-610


    Turn Ks

    I check and villain bets 200 again.
    not loving the turn at all but I call.

    River is complete brick 6d (brick)
    check to villain who bets over pot $800

    hero?

    Villains range on river

    All ATs+ with spades (AKs of spades isnt possible) thats 3 combos

    3 combos of AKs (spades not possible) he could've fired a barrel on flop, turned a K and fired again.

    9combos of AKo with A of spades makes sense given his line of play

    AA , 6 combos

    pocket KK , 3 combos

    QQ w spade , 3 combos

    JJ w spades 3 combos

    99, 3 combos

    AQ w spade 6 combos

    AJ w spade 6 combos


    I put the sets and AA in there because OP said villain was loose and overplayed hands .

    when I input ranges on equilab we get a low equity of 36% versus Villains 64%, seems like a clear fold even if villain overplays sets and AA given the board texture I was just somewhat confused because pot odds say we need to be good 1 out of 3 and given these equities we are just above that but only if we assume villain overplays hands on such a bad board texture. I know this is a fold just saying the numbers are what I was confused of.
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-24-2020 at 01:23 PM.
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Required equity is as good as any other name, so long as you recognize that's the same equation we've just been calling pot equity in our discussions.

    bet/(bet + pot)
    is identical to
    (Price of calling)/ (Pot+Price of calling)

    And it's ~30.5%, not 50%

    The pot before the bet was 1010.
    The bet is 800.
    The pot is now 1810.
    800/(1810 + 800) = 800/2610 ~= 30.5%

    You put Villain on a range and you calculated your equity against that range.
    Excellent!

    Your calling equity is 36%, according to your calculations.
    36% > 30.5%

    The actual equity is greater than the required equity.
    It's not technically a fold.
    It's a very thin call.

    So thin that you need to be pretty confident that Villain is going to take this line with those sets.

    If he keeps seeing you pick off his sets when he bets them like that, he may adjust. Hard to say at the micros, but more sophisticated players might notice that bet doesn't work against you.
    Not that that matters for this call. Just something to keep an eye out for down the road.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    As a general rule that is always true.
    The required equity MUST be less than 50% at all times.

    The only way it could be as high as 50% is if there's no dead money in the pot.
    The posted blinds mean that can't ever happen.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  4. #4
    ahh i see what I did wrong , I didn't add it correctly I went 800/1800 instead of (pot including villains bet+villains bet) which would be 1810+800=2610 800/2610= 30.5%
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    pot including villains bet+villains bet
    Perhaps more informative to say

    pot including villain's bet + hero's call

    The equation is simply [Total Risk] / [Total Reward]
    The total risk is the amount you have to call.
    The total reward is the amount you will win if you call, which includes your own bet.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.

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