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Min raised-multi way pot. flop/ 762 all clubs, we have TdKc hero..?

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  1. #1

    Default Min raised-multi way pot. flop/ 762 all clubs, we have TdKc hero..?

    Villain who bets out has a VPIP of 30 in 30 hands and is leading out half pot into 4 players.

    $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
    PokerStars
    8 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter

    Stacks:
    UTG ($0.56) 28bb
    UTG+1 ($1.94) 97bb
    MP1 ($1.36) 68bb
    MP2 ($2.38) 119bb
    CO ($1.66) 83bb
    BTN ($1.21) 61bb
    SB ($2.17) 109bb
    BB Hero ($2.17) 109bb

    Pre-Flop: (0.03, 8 players) Hero is BB
    UTG raises to $0.04, 4 folds, BTN calls $0.04, SB calls $0.03, Hero calls $0.02
    Flop: ($0.16, 4 players)

    SB bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds

    Turn: ($0.32, 2)
    SB bets $0.16, Hero calls $0.16 River: ($0.64, 2)

    SB bets $0.62, Hero folds

    Final Pot: $1.26

    SB wins $1.24 (net +$0.34)

    BTN lost $0.04
    Hero lost $0.28
    UTG lost $0.04

    I am getting 3:1 here right?A flush from the flop to the turn has 18% chance to hit ? So I needed 4:1 to make this call? someone might call behind me but if they don't then can I expect to make up for it on the turn if the club comes and villain bets again ? I'm assuming villain has a two pair ,top pair maybe weaker flush his bets seem like he as something so I expected to get paid if I hit. How should I be looking at it from the flop . Should I be calculating the bets I will face on the turn and everything else if i miss before the turn even comes? was it ok to call on the flop?

    If I call this flop and nobody calls I am missing 1 payments out of that 4:1 I needed on the flop, I got pot odds of 3:1 and called so I need to make up the other 1. If villain bets 2/3 pot on the turn now what? Do I need bring the debt from the last street into account? should I be expecting a 2/3 pot bet when villain only bet half pot on the flop? I know we cant
    predict what villain will bet on turn but what should the thought process be here .
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-29-2020 at 11:40 PM.
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Your K is probably good outs, too. Make it 12 outs OTF. 12/47 = 25.5%
    You're priced in to call. You don't want to raise because the more hands in this pot, the better potential payout when the flush comes in.

    HU OTT
    Well... the paired board is always scary, but that doesn't mean the K isn't still clean. Since it's HU, and there's a lot of straight draws in Villain's range and flush draws and small 1-pairs that hit the board. They'll have trips sometimes, too. At any rate, if the K hits OTR, you're just looking for a cheap showdown.

    call this every time.

    OTR, nothing hit, hero folds. GG WP.

    ***
    If we take your only outs as the FD, and we assume that you always win the pot when the flush comes in, then that simplifies the answer to your question.
    OTF, you had 9/47 ~= 19% (close to 1/5) and you want to call no more than a 1/3 PSB (20% required odds). That would be a bet of ~$0.05, but the bet you called was $0.08. When you hit this, you need to recoup the difference of $0.03 with Villain calling a bet of at least $0.03.

    However, they wont do that every time you hit, and 4/5 times you wont hit, so you need to recoup more than $0.03 to make up for that 80% of calls that don't pay off. No way you're betting that small into a pot that size when you catch the draw, so you are probably fine.

    I honestly never calculated this exact number, but it's something that could be calculated. I think being aware of the fact that you need to win a decent bet when the draw comes in is enough. The fact that you didn't call WAY behind, and that you only need to recoup 1 or 2 bb makes this an almost certainly good call OTF.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    OTT when you miss your draw, but the betting is still open:
    Obv. you want it to go check check when this happens, but Villain didn't make that an option.

    To answer your question, yes. You want to keep track of the fact that you're already needing to recoup 1 - 2 bb from the flop bet, and now you're going to have to add even more to recoup. If this number becomes a number that Villain is unlikely to pay off when you hit, then you have to fold OTT. Just don't make a fold your go-to play in this spot at the micros.

    If Villain still bets that PSB OTR when the flush comes in, you call the flop and turn all day every day.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  4. #4
    [QUOTE=MadMojoMonkey;2303622]

    ***
    If we take your only outs as the FD, and we assume that you always win the pot when the flush comes in, then that simplifies the answer to your question.
    OTF, you had 9/47 ~= 19% (close to 1/5) and you want to call no more than a 1/3 PSB (20% required odds). That would be a bet of ~$0.05, but the bet you called was $0.08. When you hit this, you need to recoup the difference of $0.03 with Villain calling a bet of at least $0.03.

    Where did you get the required odds 20% from? I have seen you do this on another thread where you are calculating the required odds by using PSB and coming up with a % kind of like using a shortcut or something. I always have to use the formula of price to call/(pot+price to call) is there a faster way ?
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    When you use {fraction} PSB, the required odds are simple to calculate.

    {numerator} / {2*numerator + denominator}
    or, I find it easier to think of it this way

    {numerator} / {numerator + numerator + denominator}

    1/2 PSB is 1/(1 + 1 + 2) = 1/4 = 25%

    3/4 PSB is 3/(3 + 3 + 4) = 3/10 = 30%


    Note, it's the same equation. I haven't changed anything mathematically except to think of the numbers as a fraction of the pot size.
    What that does is normalize our math to a standard, but that's no small thing.
    Being able to simplify this one equation that we calculate many times per hand is a very big deal.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  6. #6
    wouldn't the $$ I needed to make be $0.08 after I called on the flop? I needed 4:1 to call and I was given 3:1 so I am missing 1 payment of $0.08? Idk thats why I'm asking . so on the flop are we supposed to be thinking ahead to the river? if villain holds 2 pair or weak flush OTF for example, we are about to call the $0.08, making the pot $0.32, any card that's not a 7,6,2 is not the worst. Should we be assuming one of the villains behind us will make the $0.08 call so that we can calculate the size of the pot and future bet we will be facing on the turn if villain decides to barrel again? Kind of difficult to know if anyone behind us will call so maybe not, if we miss our flush on the turn and no paired board comes yet villain bets out again. Pot before Villains turn bet=($0.32) . Villains 2/3 PSB= $0.21 , total pot=($0.53)

    then we will be getting odds of 2:1 and should fold the turn , should we be thinking ahead like this?

    If our club does come on the turn then we will be more than happy to face that bet however we don't know if villain will bet that same amount versus another club...this gives us reverse implied odds ? since our hand is obvious? but if we just call his bet on the turn....will it still be obvious? if we just call his bet on the turn he has outs to make a full-house on the river that we would need to watch for since 2-pairs are apart of his range here, if he has a weaker flush he could get bet-shy on another club giving us poor pay-off, so in this hand folding the turn was likely best? we don't know if villain is betting this way with the weaker parts of his range but should we stay safe and assume its the stronger end of his range that contains full houses and Axcc nut draws?
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 01-30-2020 at 12:40 PM.
  7. #7
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    wouldn't the $$ I needed to make be $0.08 after I called on the flop?
    I'm honestly not sure without doing the algebra. I thought about this a bunch of ways and all of them seem pretty logical. Just gotta break out the math and see what it says.

    Either way, I don't think it's a huge deal. Even if you do need to get $0.08 into the pot, as we see in this hand, that's a 1/4 PSB OTT. I'm guessing that tiny bet isn't really on your mind when you catch the flush OTT.

    Even if we call another 1/2 PSB OTT, and we use your suggestion for the needed equity to make that call, then we're now in for $0.08 + $0.16 = $0.24, which is still less than 1/2 PSB OTR, so within the expectation of a call from many Villains.

    Should we be assuming one of the villains behind us will make the $0.08 call so that we can calculate the size of the pot and future bet we will be facing on the turn if villain decides to barrel again? Kind of difficult to know if anyone behind us will call so maybe not
    Same as always. You put them on a range now, and you speculate as to what % of that range calls and what % raises and what % folds, then you do an equity calc that includes the EV from that villain's response. Do this for each villain left to act after you. Use Equilab to calculate equities, and multiply those frequencies by their equity of the pot and add them up for your total EV.

    It's much more complicated when it's not HU, so I kinda don't recommend diving in that deep until you're much more snappy and quick with the HU situations.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  8. #8
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Villains 2/3 PSB= $0.21 , total pot=($0.53)

    then we will be getting odds of 2:1
    It's more like 2/5 PSB.

    21/53 ~= 40% PSB = 2/5 PSB


    2/5 PSB = 2/(2 + 2 + 5) = 2/9 ~= 22.2%

    Just to show it works,

    21 / ( 21 + 21 + 53) = 21/95 ~= 22.1%

    Only off by 0.1% with the quick and easy way.



    Note: always include the value of your call in the total pot for this calc.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  9. #9
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    since our hand is obvious? but if we just call his bet on the turn....will it still be obvious?
    There's just no way you - who is studying the game and engaging in daily discussions about putting villains on ranges - are worse at knowing what Villain's hold than they are at knowing what you hold.

    No way.

    Maybe one or 2 of them will have this particular strength that is stronger than your own, but it's not the norm.



    Also, if they "know" that you have a flush there, then shouldn't you be making that bet without a flush there, sometimes? If they "know" you have A, then you can adjust and also sometimes have B. That's going to shoot holes in their strategy to always put you on the nuts and fold. Now they're also folding then you have your airballs.

    They simply can't know whether you're doing it with the best or worst portion of your range for that spot. They can only be bad at guessing what fraction of your range is value and what fraction is bluff, just like we all are (at the micros).
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  10. #10
    I don't like the flop call multiway with players left to act. Even when we get heads up, we likely win nothing if a 4th club comes, lose a turn and river bet when we're crushed on a 4th club and there's a reasonable chance our king and ten aren't live either -villain should be very strong when taking this line.

    Even if we're worried about villain exploiting us, we shouldn't be multiway. Each player has to defend so little for that to happen that we can continue with a very tight part of our range. Basically two pair, sets, flopped flushes and nut flush draws. That's a number of combos in our range that we can defend and we don't need to be this loose multiway.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    There's just no way you - who is studying the game and engaging in daily discussions about putting villains on ranges - are worse at knowing what Villain's hold than they are at knowing what you hold.

    No way.

    Maybe one or 2 of them will have this particular strength that is stronger than your own, but it's not the norm.



    Also, if they "know" that you have a flush there, then shouldn't you be making that bet without a flush there, sometimes? If they "know" you have A, then you can adjust and also sometimes have B. That's going to shoot holes in their strategy to always put you on the nuts and fold. Now they're also folding then you have your airballs.

    They simply can't know whether you're doing it with the best or worst portion of your range for that spot. They can only be bad at guessing what fraction of your range is value and what fraction is bluff, just like we all are (at the micros).
    I feel like I am getting more knowledge on the game but I am having difficulty at the tables. When I play my thought process is not equal to being off-table where I can analyze without the pressure of time-limits and villains betting at me . I played 1 hour in 2 days now because I don't have the confidence I need right now, I may be trying to learn too much in too short of a time span but I need to learn and improve as fast as possible. I get lost trying to put villains on ranges mid-hand, when good cards hit the board I am always feeling like villains hit them and I over-fold often to aggression. I have a problem when I try to put villains on a range using their VPIP from the HUD and understanding what that really means about their range, I know it means they play 30% of hands , but what hands ? I can use Flopzilla and scroll out 30% and it will show me but still I don't know what hes holding.How am I supposed to know when community-cards hit only a small percent of their vpip ? when I watch Poker pros play on yt they call stuff and say things like " we cant be afraid of the flush here its only a small portion of his total range? I poorly understand any of that.
    I was just saying if a 4th club comes it might look obvious to villain I have been trying to catch, so he could possibly guess I have a good club, I feel like even though I have discussions on multiple forums daily and study every day that I'm too confused about ranges and how villains wider ranges interact with the board that it throws me off my game so I cant play right and overfold to fish.

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