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An interesting hand from another forum

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  1. #1

    Default An interesting hand from another forum

    I tried to attach a hand from another forum, I don't think it worked, Hero had 89ss at 9 handed table

    MP: 100 BB
    Hero (MP+1): 176 BB
    CO: 91.5 BB
    BTN: 103 BB
    SB: 37 BB
    BB: 100 BB
    UTG: 116 BB
    UTG+1: 100 BB

    UTG raises to 4 BB, UTG+1 calls 4 BB, MP calls 3 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB

    Flop: (24.5 BB, 6 players) 8d, 5s, 7s

    BB checks, UTG bets 112 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, Hero calls 112 BB, fold, fold

    I had a debate with someone on another forum about this hand , I wasn't sure a call was the right play or not I know we need 45% equity to call and we are getting that as long as villain UTG doesnt only play sets like this his stats were vpip:17,pfr:13,Af:2,4

    Is the a good call with 2 players behind left to act? what if they call with a straight,2pair or set?
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    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 02-04-2020 at 11:04 PM.
  2. #2
    Does Villain with those stats shove overpairs like this ? If I give him only AA-QQ that contain a spade #3combos each, AK,AQ,AJ suited spades and all sets we have 49.65% Equity, would villain with those stats shove with wider ? and what about the players behind us left to act? we have them covered but do they make our choice to call better or worse?
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
    St Louis, MO
    I die a little inside because I'm stoked to play with pr + gutshot + FD on the flop. I just don't want to call an open shove without the goods, but I'm gonna this time.

    I think it's marginal either way. Your analysis is good, and your concern that your estimate of Villain's range is what the entire decision hinges on is apt.

    I don't think it can ever be too bad to call.
    You have to assume you have 12 clean outs here to beat a flopped set, and how can you fold if you have 12 outs OTF?
    If they will open ship with a bare NFD, then you're ahead with your pair.

    I have to call. I hope it's not a leak.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  4. #4
    This is a call. Like OP says, it's only bad if villain does this with exclusively sets and straights, but he is surely wider. I'd say villain can also do this with JJ+, maybe 99/TT too, and probably AKss and most other NFD he has. With these hands in his range, we're in much better shape. And even if he does only have sets and straights, we're in reasonable shape. Yes it's -EV against that range, but even if that is his range, we can take comfort from the fact he played his range in such a way that we don't pay him off with the vast majority of our range. There is no range he can have here that makes his play optimal.

    Solid analysis.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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