heros range looks like...

WPN, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $24.95 (99.8 bb)
BB: $34.47 (137.9 bb)
UTG: $10.85 (43.4 bb)
MP: $29 (116 bb)
CO: $34.16 (136.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.80 (103.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with X,X
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB folds, BB raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.60) 7 3 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($16.60) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $17.55 and is all-in, BB folds

villain stats
31 hands

32/23 3b=21.4
F2STL=50% RESTL=50%
cbet=0% , F2CB=50%

Hero stats
263 hands
20/17
steal =30 F2STL =82 RESTL=6
CB=75 CBTURN=65
F2CB=43

Hmm, is the question what should it look like, or what does it look like assuming we use population reads if we're villain with 31 hands on you?

You look like you have a decent amount of spaz out here, but spaz with some reasonable equity as back up in the unlikely event of getting called on the turn (including QJss). Sets plus big combo draws and spade draws with pairs on the flop presumably play this faster against villain's line, but can't be entirely discounted. 2 other combos of T9s could be there. AA is possible but heavily discounted.

I think 3x on btn is too big by the way.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I think 3x on btn is too big by the way.

why?

If hero steals 30% how is he XX for cards?

Originally Posted by Timlagor

If hero steals 30% how is he XX for cards?

because I didn't want people to focus on the exact cards im holding. I want people to focus on my line, and what range would play this way vs. this specific villain. with his 3bet at 21%, and resteal at 50% his range is pretty wide. should I just put my cards in there?

I was thinking more in terms of putting your Range in there (just for my convenience cos I didn't immediately put XX together with you having a range from stats later).

Also.. you don't ask a question

I'm just gonna ramble a bit so people can tell me where I'm wrong.

[P] Given you are already 30% to his 50% you can pretty much 4Bet everything -no 4Bet response stats for him. ...then again perhaps that kills off most of his range that you can play for more value postflop so I suppose you want to 4Bet quite a lot of the bottom of your range for semi-value while calling the top for more value later.
This is a strange thing to be doing so maybe someone will explain why I'm mad to think it reasonable.

[F] I think his Raise here usually means he doubts you have anything and probably has at least a pair himself. I'd call with draws though and probably AK (as well as everything that hit). Fold any low pairs you kept hold of.
3Bet only bluffs in this spot as he's reasonably likely to fold everything that isn't a set so maybe you should be 3betting those draws and XT hands.

[T] This looks very much like a strong draw though J8 spades is likely still in your range too and fairly vulnerable so any shoving ranger here should include it.
A small bet is much more likely to keep him paying with weak hands and calling the River as well but those flush draws are quite menacing if either hits.

Originally Posted by acg123

why?

Why do you think 3bb better than 2.5x or 2x?

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Why do you think 3bb better than 2.5x or 2x?

bigger pots in position. in position being key, ill open 2.5 or 2 in CO if BTN is playing lite vs my CO opens but for the most part im 3x'ing every spot. on average we make more money from BTN then any other spot, why would we want to play smaller pots? makes no sense to me.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

I was thinking more in terms of putting your Range in there (just for my convenience cos I didn't immediately put XX together with you having a range from stats later).

Also.. you don't ask a question

ahhh..
my range is {55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J 9o+,T9o} on a std open.
vs 3bet im folding bottom half roughly..(roughly is an understatement as i don't play "by the book" concrete ranges)
so my range OTF looks like {JJ-77,AJs-A7s,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QJo}

Originally Posted by Timlagor

I'm just gonna ramble a bit so people can tell me where I'm wrong.

[P] Given you are already 30% to his 50% you can pretty much 4Bet everything -no 4Bet response stats for him. ...then again perhaps that kills off most of his range that you can play for more value postflop so I suppose you want to 4Bet quite a lot of the bottom of your range for semi-value while calling the top for more value later.
This is a strange thing to be doing so maybe someone will explain why I'm mad to think it reasonable.

[F] I think his Raise here usually means he doubts you have anything and probably has at least a pair himself. I'd call with draws though and probably AK (as well as everything that hit). Fold any low pairs you kept hold of.
3Bet only bluffs in this spot as he's reasonably likely to fold everything that isn't a set so maybe you should be 3betting those draws and XT hands.

[T] This looks very much like a strong draw though J8 spades is likely still in your range too and fairly vulnerable so any shoving ranger here should include it.
A small bet is much more likely to keep him paying with weak hands and calling the River as well but those flush draws are quite menacing if either hits.

[P]i would 4bet the top of my range to like 5.75 or something annoying.

[F] his raise is shit..his range is wide and the board is shit. hes making a play at the pot assuming i COULD be weak praying for a fold. its possible he has a real hand though, so 3betting flop would be bad. fold out his shit and call his nutters. that's why i flat IP. also the pot size will be perfect for a shove, so if hes holding a nut hand like a set, he will shove a realllly high % of the time, if he has a draw hes worried he just ran into a set, or overpair IF i call on the flop. so he will check. im basically floating his check raise in this spot. if he raised to something like 8.50 or 9.50, im snap folding.

[T] he checks, i shove because if he had a strong made hand i would of heard more than a "peep" min-raise OTF. unless he has EXACTLY J8 or T9. which i can tell you i did not have. why would i shove the nuts? T9 you could argue a shove for value but i would prob. bet like $5 because its enough to deny proper odds and i will get a call from all his shit, maybe even a spazz shove from an over and FD.

[F] You don't really address my suggestion of 3Bet bluffs(fold to shove obv): I said that was the only 3B I make. There's no value in continuing those hands against monsters and I think he has enough folding range here to make it useful. I'm going for full-on exploitative here not remotely GTO so these bluffs are not balanced by value bets.

[T] My nut shove suggestion was to get a little bit of balance in your range (I'm assuming a fair number of (semi)bluffs for the reasons you cite) and because the [T] nuts is not terribly secure with 2 suits waiting to fill the flush (even if you have spades you're off the nuts on the river which could be painful).
My reasoning may be off here but I'm thinking I like the J8 odds here much more than I do after he's seen the River card.