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based on the info in the chart:
Given the wider range for the buttons flat, i think everyone is folding way too much in the btn vs EP cbets
i threw together a lose range which probably should discount premiums from the flatting range a bit (i still only included 1 combo of AA and 2 of KK), but still:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ad9h5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.91% 57.88% 1.04% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
BU 41.09% 40.05% 1.04% { QQ-22, AsAc, KhKs, KsKc, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo+ }
Even though BTN is significantly behind, the btn still has a lot of equity just getting to the flop.
B. People contradicted themselves. Oskar and Jyms have the best hand he is folding as a random PP and the worst hand he calls is Ax, when there are PPs that are inbetween their fold/call range that need to be addressed.
Other than this i think that everyone is assuming that if he calls he has something. I just do not think this is the case and i believe that there is going to be a ton of air in anybodys floating range on this board (unless of course my image is that of a nit). If this survey represented the public accurately, then this means that we should be floating more. The general perception is that someone has a hand when they float one street on such a dry board. (although i think in reality, despite what people are saying in this exercise, a lot of people refuse to give credit on a board like this)
C. everyone are nits. I do not believe that in the heat of the moment people are folding so much. If that is the case and people are only continuing with AJ+ (unlikely), that means they are folding about 65% of their range (assuming that they cbet 100% of the range that i posted for the EP open)...this is where you print the monies.
D. Ongs seems the best, with calling a lot more raises than everyone else, however it is going to be tough to call OOP to a raise with JTs. I think this is suicide. Somewhere in the middle, the truth lies. If anything i would be more likely to 3bet junk like this as opposed to making tougher decisions OOP down the road (if opponent seems to be raising cbets with any frequency),and balance that out by playing my super strength fast on a board like this as well.
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