Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
The best outcome is that you bet more and he calls at the same rate, right?

You expect he calls too much, but until you see actual evidence he calls too much, it's worth exploring. Maybe he doesn't adjust. Maybe he adjusts poorly. The only way to know is to press him.
I'd expect him to fold where he doesn't have setmining odds, so I'd want him to call with setmining odds, and for me to have enough skill post flop to ensure it's not profitable for him with x17 or whatever he has.

But you're right, we don't know he folds, and this is the perfect opportunity to find out. At least if we raise more pre flop, when he calls we make enough pre flop to ensure we're not making a net loss from this hand.

I'm probably wrong to keep it small pre flop, considering he's UTG and therefore more likely to call that if he were in late position. But I still hate the bet on the turn.