3bet pot with AK

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

CO: $11.49 (114.9 bb)
BTN: $10.07 (100.7 bb)
SB: $3.35 (33.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $10 (100 bb)
MP1: $7.83 (78.3 bb)
MP2: $10.99 (109.9 bb)
MP3: $11.30 (113 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 folds, CO raises to $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, CO calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 5 9 T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.55, CO calls $1.55

Turn: ($6.35) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($6.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.35

Villain is tight but I had seen him isolating the fish before so I decided to 3bet the AK. I think he's calling with maybe 88-QQ and maybe some suited broadway like AQ/AJ, KQ.

OTF: complete miss but it's a very dry flop so I cbet hoping that he completely missed and will give up.

OTT: I check intending to fold as he seems to have some kind of hand with showdown like 77 or 88 or maybe AT

OTR: check fold

Is the flop a check fold vs a TAG with a fairly narrow range oop? Preflop ok?

How do you know villain is tight? Do you have any HUD stats? Stats of interest - raise %, fold to 3b %, along with sample size.

This is one of those tricky spots that comes up a lot in poker, and to be honest I still find myself not really knowing what to do.

I think here I just give up as soon as I see the flop. He's tight so I'm not expecting a x5 iso with the likes of 66-88, and that's all that we lose to that we can reasonably expect to fold out.

Maybe the 3bet isn't all that great vs this guy, really I'd like to know how often he's raising, how often he's calling 3bets, and sample size. Lacking this info, I might just flat this pre, but that could be a really bad play with this hand, I mean it's practically inviting the limp donkeys to see the flop too, which means we'd be 4handed and out of position, hardly a great spot with AK.

Tricky spot really. River is clear fold obviously.

Interesting observations. I don't have much hand data about the villain for the detailed statistics to be relevant. It was a tricky spot.

You should look into getting yourself a HUD, either Poker Tracker or Hold 'em Manager, both offer free trials I believe. It will help you to profile villains much better.

Do we want to isolate ourselves against someone nitty or do we want the limpers to come along?

I don't really like betting the flop either.

I don't like calling pf at the risk of others coming along. Ak is going to play poorly oop multiway. I don't mind the 3bet if he steals from the button significantly. Before we 3bet we need to be aware of our table image and what we are repping by 3betting. If we are tight with small 3bet big pp are a large part of our perceived range therefore for our story to be convincing if we cbet the flop we should be Cbetting the turn. I imagine villain will float us a lot on the flop with suited over cards and small pp that he can give up on the turn if our story is consistent. Long story short c/f flop or if we cbet we need to fire two barrels.

AK doesn't play poorly multiway at all it plays perfectly well, it's just because people think they need to flop a hand and get all the money in that makes it seem a bad.

- i would re-raise a little bit higher, because we are out of position throughout the hand (i am happy to take it down before the flop)

- we could still have the best hand on the river, but it´s tricky - lets make a blocking bet to save some chips!

Maybe I should have re-raised a bit higher

Originally Posted by OngBonga

River is clear fold obviously.

Is it?

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Is it?

Well I'd fold it. Maybe it's not a clear fold the more I think about it, but only because now I'm levelling myself into thinking he has QJs KJs and enough missed Ax to balance out the sets. I don't think he has KJo QJo, so there's not all that many combos of missed draws. But then again why does he check turn? Thing is, the amount of times I've made calls with marginal hands because villain checked turn and he flips over something that really shouldn't check turn... I just expect to see lots of value hands here, ranging from middle pair to sets. I also wouldn't be all that surprised to see missed straight draws. Does he have them enough? Maybe he does and maybe we should call this river, it could be an area in which I suck.

(this is my first strategy post, so I hope I don't suck!)...

I'd like to ask OP, do you have a HUD? If you answered it somewhere, I missed it. I've just started reading FTR again and the last batch of hands are ones that you have posted. But, without detailed reads or stats, the advice you receive is just not as accurate. As several people have said, you are at a huge disadvantage w/o some hand tracking software. And, it's not just for the HUD, it's immensely helpful in analyzing your own play later.

If you don't have a HUD, then my advice would be to play just 1 or 2 tables and take HUGE amounts of notes until you build up a useful profile on the players you play against regularly. And, even if you do have a HUD, still take tons of notes.

If you do have a HUD...
You say you don't have much hand data but VPIP/PFR converge into useful stats pretty quickly. In this hand, his fold to cbet is critical. Floating seems to be the new black right now and I come across so many regs who are folding to cbets less 40%. So, you look at that number (given enough hands to make it useful) and if it is a more standard 65-70%, then you cbet this flop. If he calls, you shrug your shoulders and check/fold unless you hit your cards.

BUT...a lot of floaters will have low "fold to flop cbet stats" but normal "fold to turn cbet stats". In that case, follow Openside's advice and double barrel.

Having said all that, this isn't a great flop for you and C/F'ing is certainly a safe option. Again, having a read on the villain's range is critical.

One more question: What is your normal cbet size, especially in 3 bet pots. If you are betting 1/2 with air and 2/3 or more when you hit, good regs will pick up on that in no time.

Keep in mind, there is nothing wrong with raising AK pre, cbetting a good flop (an entirely different topic), and then giving up. You put money in w AK because you are probably the favorite at the time. But, it's still a drawing hand. Sometimes I swear I go an entire night w/o flopping TPTK....well except for the times someone else flops a set!

And, as other people have said, your preflop raise should be bigger. A good rule of thumb is about 1 bet larger than a pot-sized raise when you are OOP.

I would 3b bigger pre, being OOP. But that's just me. My standard would be 3x IP and bigger OOP.

As played, depends on if villain is the type to take showdowns often. Is he the type to vbet thin?

If he generally takes showdowns and doesn't vbet thin, I'd be VERY tempted to call this river. It's definitely close imo.