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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
What is Villain's range after he x/c OTF?
Note that he had to pass through 3 sieves to get to that point.
1) range to open UTG
2) range to call the 3-bet UTG
3) range to check OTF
so whatever his range is to x/c the flop has to be a subset of 3) which is a subset of 2) which is a subset of 1)
If they would have already folded it at a previous decision point, then they cannot have it now.
See why being in position is so much stronger than being OOP? You get 4 pieces of info while only giving out 2. Economics!
Not enough hands to totally dial in on stats, but with 50+ I think I can guess at a roundabout range for UTG OR. (open raises)
{AA-22, broadway, A+, Ks+, 54s+} is my standard 30+ VPIP default PF.
Anyway for him to min-raise and then call a 3bet I would cap it and say he still likely holds onto {QQ-22, AQ+, KQ+, 87s+} I think at 35%+, I doubt frisky player is dropping anything stronger than KQo+. 3bet wouldn't get him to fold any pairs before the flop IMO. I think he may throw away some bottom SC's but has a need to see flop with mid up till flop.
x/c OTF - {QQ, JJ, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22, AQ+, KQ+, 87s, 87d+} QQ, JJ, could be keeping pot cheap in case I have AA, KK, and letting me bet for them if they are way ahead, yet have to worry about overcard on later streets and likely show true colors soon. I removed TT, 99,88,77, because they had to see if their overpair is good I think, and currently they have no clue where they are in the hand. 66, 55, 22, are slow-rolling sets and letting me bet my way into obilvion, while board is only semi-wet. 44, 33, hoping for gut shot and set mining combo. AQ+, KQ, can't easily drop a good stating hand on flop if they are overs to the board. I left them because a loose player is more apt to hold out, even to my aggression, than a tight player, with his weaker range liking the action. Any AQd+, KQd isn't going anywhere, although more likely would have bet their draw and overs, but some people like to be ahead before investing too much, and his PF min-raise may be an indicator that he is just that type of player. 87s OESD could have played it that way, although conservatively. I think we lose QJs-T9s, as they no longer hold much value. Although 98s may have played the weak gutshot that way or even 98h for a little spice. I kept 87d in, although I feel this player type would want to play OESFD harder with a big raise. 98d+ isn't dropping any hands with FD's.
These are my thoughts. I'm starting to enjoy breaking these down. Thanks guys.
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