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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Anybody have rules of thumb for ranges 4-handed? 33% VPIP doesn't sound too ridiculous to me.
Infer: Villain isn't being outrageously out of line with hand selection PRE.
Infer: Villain's range to open from BTN is "sensible."
Granted, we don't know how imba this villain's range is to call a 3-bet BTN vs SB, but we expect that AJ is dominating his range (and if it isn't, then OP needs a strong reason to have 3-bet AJ and not called PRE).
Helpful info we don't have: Any further information about what Villain did (preferably post-flop) during the 7(ish) hands that Hero saw Villain VPIP.
Still, Hero can't be x/f in 3-bet pots when he has 2 overs to the board, and one of them is the A blocking the NFD.
This wouldn't be good form in any HU pot, especially not 4-handed. Doubly especially not against a relative unknown.
Nothing is clear w/o stipulating ranges.
@OP: Care to hazard a guess as to Villain's range after each of his decision points?
A) Villain opens to $0.50
B) Villain calls the 3-bet PRE
C) Villain calls OTF
D) Villain calls OTT
This establishes Villain's range at your decision point OTR.
E) IF you bet OTR, Villain's ranges to {fold / call / raise }?
(note that Villain's behavior here may depend on your bet sizing. There is MUCH to learn by exploring how your sizing matters to his range, but for now, just pick the sizing you were going to raise here and guess how Villain responds.)
F) IF you check OTR, Villain's ranges to { check / bet } ?
These will help us use math to determine the most +EV line, given our assumptions.
A) let's take a standard 38% opening: 22+, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o+, 87s+, 97s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q5s+, K3s+, A2s+
B) he would call with 14% (which is pretty tight): 66-99, AT-Qo, KTo, KJo, KQo, QJo, 87s-KQs, 97s-AQs, K9s-KQs, A5s-AJs
C) he would call with 13% (indeed pretty bad flop for me ) : 66 (with 6 of clubs), 77, 88, 99, AT-Qo, KTo, KJo, KQo, QJo, 87s-KQs, 97s-AQs, K9s-KQs, A9s, A8s
D) he would call with 10% : 88-99 (maybe raising 1/2 of these), ATo, AJo, KTo, KJo, QJo, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs, QJs, KQcc, KQdd, 97s, T8s, J9s, QTs, KJs, AQdd, A9s, AJs
Let's say he folds the following hands to a push:
KJ, AJ, KTo, 87s, KQcc, KQdd, QTs, JTs, AQdd = 9 + 9 + 12 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 1= 38
Let's he calls with the rest:
AT, QJ, 98s, T9s, 97s, T8s, J9s, A9s = 9 + 9 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 30
This looks like a push, no?
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