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griffey24
With regards to assumptions on sets and how they will play on monotone boards.
If you have KQdd on Kc7h3d rainbow board facing a bet, do you necessarily raise? Maybe not, because there are many hands better than yours (33,77,KK, AK, AA) - a total of 21 reasonable combos better than ours.
If you have 33 on K73 monotone board facing a bet, do you necessarily raise? How many combos are better than us in this case? 6 sets and a number of flushes: 56s, 68s, 89s, 9Ts, 9Js, JTs, QJs, QTs, A2-AQs (9) - 17 total flushes, for approximately 23 or so combos better than ours.
Not to mention that by raising on the flop in this spot, you are heavily representing a flush yourself, when you can't even beat a flush. So you are somewhat over-repping your hand in a spot where better hands are fairly obvious.
I'm not saying you shouldn't raise a set on monotone boards, but I don't think it's a clear raise necessarily.
There is a lot more to a hand than the number of possible combos that beat us.
First of all, I'm not sure I'm putting 65s, 86s, J9s, etc in an utg's opening range w/o some reads.
Far more importantly, the first example is a completely dry board with little chance of improvement. that is a classic WA/WB scenario, and against an utg open, I'm not comfortable at all. Calling is the prescribed action, and I probably don't call 3 streets.
The current hand is COMPLETELY the opposite. A ton of cards (38% by the river) can come to ruin your hand, if not your action. And, plenty of cards (34%) will improve your hand. You beat the majority of his betting range that falls within a likely utg open range. You lose to AQcc,KK,AJcc,ATcc = 5 combos. You beat AAxx, AcKx, AcQx, AxQc, QQcx, KQxx, KQxc. And....this is crucial, most of the hands that you beat, will call your raise, and you will be making them pay for the draw, against which you are very vunerable.
Just go look up any article on the type of hand you should call on the flop and the type of hand you should raise on the flop. I'm not saying that you always raise a set in this situation, but that is literally the worst possible comparison hand you could give.
I'm just saying...
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