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10NL - River - hand check?

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 10NL - River - hand check?

    Hi guys,

    Some hand I wanted a check.
    Villain is one of the best players at my level. Might see me at weak/tight or maybe not, really don't know.

    Plugging the hand ranges in equilab here we go:

    Vilains ranges:

    Pre-flop:
    88+,AK,AQ,Ats+,98s,T9s,QJs,KQs,87s,76s

    FLOP:
    88+,AK,AhQh,AdQd,Ats,AhJh,AdJd,9h8h,9d8d,Td9d,JdTd ,QhJh,QdJd,KdQd,KhQh,8h7h,7h6h,8d7d,7d6d,AhQc,AhQd ,AhQs,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs
    We have 54% equity on the FLOP

    TURN:
    99+,AK,AhQh,AdQd,AdTd,AhJh,AdJd,9h8h,9d8d,QhJh,QdJ d,KdQd,KhQh,8h7h,7h6h,8d7d,7d6d,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AhJ c,AhJd,AhJs
    We have 52% equity on the TURN

    RIVER:
    AA,TT,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,QdJd,AdTd,JdTd,Td9d,7d6d ,AhQd,AhQs,AhQc,AhQh
    I counted he pushes AA on river but not KK. I counted only AhQx as bluffs (which count for 4 hands) and considered he won't bluff with AhJx. All the other hands are not bluffs = 22.
    Equilab gives me an equity of 21% vs this range. With pot odds we need 26% equity. If villain doesn't push RIVER with AA (which I think it's quite likely that he would value bet or check OPP) we have a 30% equity.

    What do you think of these ranges?
    I was wondering whether a bomb on TURN would not have been better with all the flush draws + straight draw out there?
    However, villain is 3betting from SB vs UTG so his range should be quite stronger.


    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/
    saw flop | saw showdown
    Button ($25.07)
    MP ($7.09)
    CO ($11.08)
    SB ($13.78)
    BB ($11)
    UTG ($10)
    Preflop:
    UTG raises $0.25, 3 folds, SB raises $0.95, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.75
    Flop: ($2.10) 10, 3, 2 (2 players)
    SB bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30
    Turn: ($4.70) 4 (2 players)
    SB bets $2.50, UTG calls $2.50
    River: ($9.70) 8 (2 players)
    SB bets $6.14, UTG ????

    We are Hero/UTG with JdJs.
    Last edited by jimmy44; 02-12-2017 at 04:57 AM.
  2. #2
    Interesting and common spot. Is hero holding TT-QQ? I'll assume QQ as it's probably the top of our range.

    My standard assumption is that villain won't be light here, beyond maybe some suited wheel aces [JJ+, AK, A2s-A5s], maybe some suited connectors. Player in the bb is maybe slightly relevant too - if it's an habitual squeezer, that may change things.

    If we go as wide as villain barrelling off all busted heart and diamond draws in his range on the river and QQ+, we wouldn't have the equity to call. If he has JJ in his range, that makes a big difference. But honestly, I just don't see us ever being good here.
  3. #3
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    We are UTG/hero with JJ.
    I'd give more 7-8% 3bet range (including blufs like 87s or 76s as villain 3bets quite a bit) for villain.
    Will villain push the river with QQ+?
  4. #4
    settecba's Avatar
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    Without your read that he sees you as weak/tight, I'd probably fold turn. With that read it's a call(turn).

    By the river and considering that read again, it makes a lot of sense that he wouldn't push AA, and that he would bluff enough to make this a close call.

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