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[5NL] AKs BvB
SB: $7.87 (157.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $14.36 (287.2 bb)
UTG: $10.34 (206.8 bb)
MP: $5.13 (102.6 bb)
CO: $4.11 (82.2 bb)
BTN: $8.42 (168.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
4 folds, SB raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, SB raises to $1.20, Hero ??
SB is 74/54, 31.4% 3b, 0/5 fold to 3b, this is his 2nd 4b in 115 hands.
If his calling range is QQ+, AK (this is pretty tight I think?), we have 42% when called. So to break even villain needs to fold n amount of the time.
eV(fold)=1.6n................................=1.6n
eV(called+lose)=(n)(-7.47)(0.58)......=-4.33n
eV(called+win)=(1-n)(8.27)(0.42).....=3.47-3.47n
eV(total)=eV(fold)+eV(called+lose)+eV(called+win)
0=1.6n-4.33n+3.47-3.47n
6.2n=3.47
n=0.56
We should have this amount of fold equity I think... plus as villain's calling range gets wider and our equity when called goes up he needs to fold less and less.
How is my math? This is a standard jam right? Or can we call and play a pot in position?
Thanks
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