[10NL] AQo...Blind vs Blind

Villain is 30/26 over 28 hands.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $10.00
CO: $10.15
BTN: $12.46
Hero (SB): $10.22
BB: $10.49

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 3 2 Q
Hero bets $0.40, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.80, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BB bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

River: ($7.60, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BB bets $3.60, Hero ???

I think villain can have a FH some of the time and quads some of the time (22-33) but other than that what can he have? I think there are a tonne of busted FDs that villain can have but given I haven't seen him do anything like this before can we really call here w/ TPTK on the assumption he raises and barrels twice w/ FDs?

I'm really struggling to see what value hands villain can have here and if we do think he has a tonne of busted FDs then this looks like an easy call?

Can't think of a reason to do anything other than call. It's BVB vs a suspected aggro, so I'd expect to see all sorts of full retard here beyond even semi bluffs. We're getting ~3:1, and even if we go wide on his flop value raising range, we don't need too many busted draws.

Widest range we lose to:
22 = 1 combo
33 = 3 combos
All Q2 = 4 combos
All Q3 = 6 combos
32s = 1 combo
QJ = 0 combos (assume doesn't raise flop with QJ)
KK+ = 0 combos (assume 3bets pre)
Total = 15 combos

So we only need him to be bluffing 5 busted draw combos to be good often enough, and that's before we even get to spaz out combos.

The most important thing in this hand is to take a good note on villain's sizing and line here compared to what he shows up with. Difficult to see how you won't own this guy after doing so.

I don't think villain should have a raising range on this flop. His value range is so small that he's probably overbluffing a ton. Given sizing it seems like a super easy call. I think Bean Counters combo analysis is spot on, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has random 2x some nonzero %.

Considering our range I think folding river is super exploitative. If he is bluffing too much then we're going to be losing a lot by only felting 7 combos of sets.

Go ahead and check/call his goofy flop raise that's a value hand like basically never, and just call it down since he wants to bluff off his stack. He'll show up with a set once in a while, but there are just a ton of bluffs he can have here, especially since his pre-flop range is going to be pretty loose considering it's bvb and he's already on the loose side at 30/27 or whatever his stats were before I scrolled down and my mouse battery LITERALLY just died.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Can't think of a reason to do anything other than call. It's BVB vs a suspected aggro, so I'd expect to see all sorts of full retard here beyond even semi bluffs. We're getting ~3:1, and even if we go wide on his flop value raising range, we don't need too many busted draws.

Widest range we lose to:
22 = 1 combo
33 = 3 combos
All Q2 = 4 combos
All Q3 = 6 combos
32s = 1 combo
QJ = 0 combos (assume doesn't raise flop with QJ)
KK+ = 0 combos (assume 3bets pre)
Total = 15 combos

So we only need him to be bluffing 5 busted draw combos to be good often enough, and that's before we even get to spaz out combos.

The most important thing in this hand is to take a good note on villain's sizing and line here compared to what he shows up with. Difficult to see how you won't own this guy after doing so.

This is good stuff - thanks man. Yeah, I think I need to get back into '10NL mode'. I think one of my major leaks as I moved up the stakes was calling down too often in spots like this and getting value towned so now I'm a little more cautious and I think the opposite has happened in that I'm probably c/c two streets and then c/f river far too much.

Originally Posted by relaywisp

I don't think villain should have a raising range on this flop. His value range is so small that he's probably overbluffing a ton. Given sizing it seems like a super easy call. I think Bean Counters combo analysis is spot on, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has random 2x some nonzero %.

Considering our range I think folding river is super exploitative. If he is bluffing too much then we're going to be losing a lot by only felting 7 combos of sets.

Agreed - I think folding here is bad upon review and seeing some of the comments. I guess I just don't expect triple barrel bluffs all that often at 10NL.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Go ahead and check/call his goofy flop raise that's a value hand like basically never, and just call it down since he wants to bluff off his stack. He'll show up with a set once in a while, but there are just a ton of bluffs he can have here, especially since his pre-flop range is going to be pretty loose considering it's bvb and he's already on the loose side at 30/27 or whatever his stats were before I scrolled down and my mouse battery LITERALLY just died.

Yeah, it seems so much easier when you read people's comments and they way they think about it. I felt pretty sure that his flop raise was a bluff (I don't think villain ever does this for value) and I had prepared myself to just c/c down but as stated earlier I just don't expect to see a whole lot of triple barrel bluffs so I end up getting paranoid that I'm being owned.

Feels like his river bet is a "I have air, but I want you to fold your missed draws" kind of bet. I'm calling.

Well he didn't boat up on turn with this sizing. Calling to showdown. I expect to see Qx and missed flush draws often here. He prob got lucky with QJ seeing as he fires riv after we call down, but whatever, I'm not folding river at half pot with tptk.

If you ever want a turn c/bomb range, then this is a good hand + board/board run-out for it .