[10NL] A5s rivered nut flush

Villain is 20/16/9 (3bet) over 51 hands. 0 relevant post flop stats or reads.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $21.93
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $10.99
BTN: $11.79
SB: $5.32
BB: $13.29

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A 5

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 2 8 8
UTG bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.65, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.65, 2 players) 4
UTG bets $2.90, Hero ???

I'm interested to see what people read from villain's bet sizing on river.

I'm also interested to see if we can raise and get called by worse flushes or even hands like AJ.

Calling an UTG raise with A5s is a bit loose no?

I mean the only hand I think we need to be worried about really is JJ, 22 & 44 aren't always in villains UTG range but we shouldn't discount them fully. It's unlikely villain is opening 78/89s UTG though and stuff like AJ, KJs are in his range. Villain also has some worse flush draws in his range but I wouldn't think many.

Overbet polarises his range quite a lot imo so we can cut out stuff a lot of two pairs using the J, I doubt an overpair wouldn't bet the turn especially with the flush draw available and it would be a silly hand to turn into a bluff (although people do sometimes). I suppose he might check some of his 8x hands if he has them but he wouldn't then overbet the river.

Really I think we're best off just calling. I think his range is polarised and there isn't really anything we get extra value from (maybe 3 combos of flushes really) if we raise unless villain is a tard and it makes sense to play JJ this way.

The sudden big bet can definitely be someone hitting their set. I ran into that last night. But be wary of putting people on a specific hand. If we put people on the one hand that beats us we will end up misjudging and misplaying a lot of hands where we're actually good.

If your read is he's tight or you trust him you could certainly just call and take a note. Poker is all about making adjustments and following your reads.

Against the average player I would definitely raise and get it in expecting to see 98s, AJ, KQcc way more often than 44.

Plus your hand is under-repped due to the turn check which I really like. You got there, he's interested, this is a very +ev situation.

Do we really think villain overbets AJ though, would make no sense at all.

edit - And is his hand really under-repped? Not really. Loads of people check back flush draws here. I don't really think it makes our range look weak either because we can check back plenty of stuff here because the board is so dry.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Calling an UTG raise with A5s is a bit loose no?

I mean the only hand I think we need to be worried about really is JJ, 22 & 44 aren't always in villains UTG range but we shouldn't discount them fully. It's unlikely villain is opening 78/89s UTG though and stuff like AJ, KJs are in his range. Villain also has some worse flush draws in his range but I wouldn't think many.

Overbet polarises his range quite a lot imo so we can cut out stuff a lot of two pairs using the J, I doubt an overpair wouldn't bet the turn especially with the flush draw available and it would be a silly hand to turn into a bluff (although people do sometimes). I suppose he might check some of his 8x hands if he has them but he wouldn't then overbet the river.

Really I think we're best off just calling. I think his range is polarised and there isn't really anything we get extra value from if we raise unless villain is a tard and it makes sense to play JJ this way.

Yeah pre is probably a mistake, not really sure why I called.

I'm pretty sure I have the best hand here but I agree with you that his range is polarised with overbet on river. JJ does make sense but I think that's the only hand villain can have in his range that beats me.

I don't think he has many, if any, 8x hands in his range. He may have 22/44 in his UTG range but that seems unlikely. I think it's possible he has AJ and is betting big because of "missed value" on the turn. I think the only hands I can get value from, by raising, are badly played overpairs or hands like KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, QcTc and possibly KcTc.

I don't think people have the thought process that the flush draw which will most likely scare them (a reason they'd bet turn) gets in on the river so I best overbet the pot. There just doesn't seem to be any reason to.

I do think you're stacking him if he has any flush btw, I just doubt he has that many flush combos in his range and for all the ones he does it makes 44 & 22 more likely imo.

I don't think people have the thought process that the flush draw which will most likely scare them (a reason they'd bet turn) gets in on the river so I best overbet the pot. There just doesn't seem to be any reason to.

Thinking about it, I agree with this. Probably has like no Jx (excluding Jc) hands here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

30 games 0.000 secs 6,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 8s 2c Jd 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 21 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JJ+, 44, 22, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc }

I think that's a reasonable range for villain here.

So we agree villain stacks off w/ most of his flushes and all of his FH's. Seems like I should probably have raised here then?

I don't think he has QQ+ in his range on the river, he'd bet the turn with it a lot for the exact same reasons and if he didn't bet the turn with it he wouldn't be over betting the river with it when the flush came in.

I don't even know if a lot of them flushes would overbet the pot but at least the thought process of trying to appear bluffy to get value makes sense.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I don't think he has QQ+ in his range on the river, he'd bet the turn with it a lot.

I'm not so sure. I call the flop and I could quite easily have an 8 here, he may be checking for some pot control. When I check back, it's unlikely I have an 8 so he overbets river. I think that's possible.

calling but not stoked. i think raising is pretty bad when he's so polarised and we arent nutted. i expect villain to have 44 a LOT here

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I'm not so sure. I call the flop and I could quite easily have an 8 here, he may be checking for some pot control. When I check back, it's unlikely I have an 8 so he overbets river. I think that's possible.

Without QQ+ in his range we have 40% equity, maybe shoving would be profitable if we fold out all his bluffs but I think this is bad for two reasons

1) This is a really awesome bluff catcher. The only better hand we can have in this spot is AJ and whether or not we get to the river with that hand is debatable.

2) Shoving becomes more profitable the more bluffs he has in his range however so does calling and I'd imagine more so but run some EV calcs to see. If we think villain is folding so much here we'd also have better hands to bluff with which have no showdown value and contain blockers.

I would call and expect to see JJ/44 sometimes, and some other complete nonsense other times.

There's no reason why an overpair would take this line / sizing imo. The tighter villain is EP, the more weighted hi range will be to pairs and less weighted to flushes, so prob not that much value in raising here.

Bet the turn for sure.

Fold or 3bet pre - it's incredibly difficult to cold call A2s-A5s profitably in my experience (worth taking a look at your database to check your own stats here).

Turn is worth a bet with decent equity - checking down to the river and being out-kicked is a disaster.

River is nuts or bluff (and heavily weighted towards nuts). We're going to see JJ/44 a bunch but also KQcc/QTcc and maybe some other flushes to make calling just about okay as long as there is the odd combo of spaz. I'd discount QQ+.

He doesn't obviously wanna get called and represents flush, I'd raise a bit with little hope for a call.

Originally Posted by ISillyDurrrAK

He doesn't obviously wanna get called and represents flush, I'd raise a bit with little hope for a call.

If he's trying to represent a flush... but doesn't wanna get called, then there is little value in the raise.

Yeah fold pre vs utg in MP. I'd like the call more if we had the button.

I'm gonna raise this flop. We fold out a lot of his better Ax plus we put his underpairs in a horrible spot, knowing he might have to call three streets to get to showdown with a hand that rarely improves. We also get to peel river for free pretty often when he calls a flop raise.

As played I'm betting turn. And I'm just calling this river bet because it's a flush or boat, and seeing as he's utg and not a loosie goosie, I don't expect all that many flushes in his range, and the flushes he has hates being raised anyway.

So yeah just call now.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I would call and expect to see JJ/44 sometimes

this. except change sometimes to most of the time.

Usually fold pre. You can 3-bet sometimes as part of a balanced range and I guess call sometimes for giggles, but other than that, it's a bad call.

Bet turn. Get AQ/66 type hands out. It's really not a disaster to get blown off a flush draw on a paired board if he goes for a c/r.

Call river.

As someone who raises this 100% of the time, you should definitely not raise this ever. Also bet turn.