A triple barrel vs a random TAG

Villain is 23/16 over 40 hands I haven't played much with him yet and have no reads or notes. My image thus far at this tables was pretty aggro, but it was a really small sample since I'd just opened this table.

I wouldn't always open preflop here, but the blinds were both incredibly nitty.

I planned on c-betting so that I could fire any turns that gave me equity or were scare cards against hios weakish range of most likely medium/low pairs and floats.

The turn seemed good enough to barrel and i felt that if I couldn't fold out hands like 88 etc here than I could on the river a ton of the time.

River seems like a fun card to force him off most of his range. I doubt he ever has a flush here. I rep flushes, kings, AA and sets pretty well here imo.

Does this look okay?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($50)
BB ($50)
Hero (UTG) ($57.50)
MP ($50)
Button ($69.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, 10
Hero bets $2, MP calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 9, 4, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, MP calls $7.50

River: ($24.75) K (2 players)
Hero bets $19.70

His turn call looks really strong to me. I think most of the range you are trying to get him off would have folded to that turn bet. The bottom of his turn calling range is JJ with a heart IMO. I would give up on the river. Looks like he has a boat.

Hold fire on the river imo, the only hands your folding are 9,xh.

what do you run carroters?

Originally Posted by eragotte

what do you run carroters?

Varies greatly on the table obviously. My standrad over a large sample is 23/20, but if the tables full of fit or foldfish or full of nits I can be 32/28 pretty easily or looser.

really bad turn bet imo, what hands u think he has vs utg in mp

i would bet a tad smaller. i think turn bet is fine, he just has a pocket pair a lot of the time

id prefer to barrel this with a hand like AhQx or AhKx because of the NFD outs plus if the river is Q/K/A you can actually have it and get paid off by TT/JJ

Varies greatly on the table obviously. My standrad over a large sample is 23/20, but if the tables full of fit or foldfish or full of nits I can be 32/28 pretty easily or looser.

haha cool, was jus curious, im glad you are selective with your aggromonkey gear :P

I like this. Obviously the king is a good card to barrel the river on but since the majority of villain's range is stuff like 66-88, TT, T9/J9 kinda hands and sometimes JJ being faced with 3 barrels from an UTG pfr is always going to blow.

Fine imo, a little smaller on the river looks more like a vbet imo AND it's cheaper. He has a low-mid PP so often on the turn, you're definately folding enough on turn/river.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

really bad turn bet imo, what hands u think he has vs utg in mp

come on meow, it's also just 5-handed

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

come on meow, it's also just 5-handed

Sorry, I still don't like it.

so's your face

ps: AIM, beeyatch

Super easy turn bet. Give up river.

I wouldn't normally post results, but it was kinda lol when he looked me up with KdJc on the river.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

so's your face

ps: AIM, beeyatch

hey get on msn bcoz you're like my only aim friend. plus its not on my pcs anymore.

Turns a good bet rivers bad. I think i';d bluff every card except a K. It's a card he probably perceives that you'll bluff and could easily hero call + he may already have a nut hand

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Turns a good bet rivers bad. I think i';d bluff every card except a K. It's a card he probably perceives that you'll bluff and could easily hero call + he may already have a nut hand

Do you assume the turn bet already is folding a decent amount of pocket pairs <9x?

Or is it just that we're having a decent amount of equity ont the turn and villain could have floated the flop and fold some low PP's, so in all it's +EV to bet. And on the river his range is 9x-QQ(not folding)+nutted hands mostly?