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Triple barrel bluff this spot? 100NL
I just sat down for about 3-4 orbits. Nothing worth mentioning has happened, just standard plays. While waiting for my blind, I did see villain call down two streets AJo midpair on flop and then check back the river, though this was BvB and against the table fish fwiw.
I believe villain's range is 77-JJ, KT+, assuming he 3bs AK and QQ. If I bet half pot, I need him to fold 33% of the time. If I think villain can fold 77-JJ, which is 39% of his range, then I can bet this river profitably. Ofc without more history, I am not sure if villain would actually call turn against me (an unknown reg) with 77 or higher pairs (thus reducing his folding range) or if villain would peel flop with say Ace high and then call turn with Axcc (which would increase his folding range). These are my thoughts on the river for making a half pot bet. Worst case scenario, I get called which would allow me to value bet thinner against villain and maybe even the other two players if they are paying attention.
Good/bad reasoning on river?
BB (€141.50)
Hero (UTG) (€111.03)
Button (€155.07)
SB (€100.50)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, A
Hero raises €3, Button calls €3, 2 folds
Flop: (€7.50) K, 2, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets €5, Button calls €5
Turn: (€17.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets €12, Button calls €12
River: (€41.50) 3 (2 players)
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