Triple on a 4 flush turn 1/2

Villain is 21/17/2.5 and seems normal and standard TAG. I'm on a new site but I'm on a lot of tables and have been playing all day so he knows I'm a reg but I'm probably unknown tendency wise. BTN is a mega fish.

Flop is standard obviously
Turn I just don't think he can have the nuts very often unless he has like AsTx whereas he can have a lot of 9s9x type stuff. I can rep the nuts pretty well so I decide to turn my hand into a bluff rather than just play for a SD. I'm intending to shove pretty much every river when I bet the turn.

Any good?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($200)
Hero (UTG) ($209.75)
Button ($203.19)
SB ($247.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, K
Hero bets $7, Button calls $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: ($22) 2, 7, 10 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, 1 fold, BB calls $18

Turn: ($58) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $42, BB calls $42

River: ($142) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $142.75 (All-In), He has $133 behind

Is this for value?

haha he's clearly bluffing the guy off a mid spade type hand. No way this ends up being for value ever. People rarely peel that turn without a spade unless he has a set, or 333 or something.

You need him to fold half of his turn continuing range. I think if he does have Asx here, he's going to play it the same way, so you'll run into the nuts sometimes for sure. It's probably close either way.

I don't see the point in turning this hand into a bluff. If you had 7x or something maybe but your gonna be good enough of the time and I don't see it it being that difficult to get to showdown vs this guy when ahead.

Its marginal, but I kind of like it. I'm sure he is inclined to call almost any spade on the turn but will fold to a river shove. I mean if you get a call here from something worse than an Ace of spades, which we hope he has less than 50% of the time, I'd be surprised.

Seriously though, I don't like it. I don't understand why you think villain would fold ANY AsX on the flop?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Seriously though, I don't like it. I don't understand why you think villain would fold ANY AsX on the flop?

I don't think he thinks villain would ever fold AsX on the flop. I just think that he thinks some % of the time he's going to c/r the flop with it, and that other spades make up more than half the turn calling range.

and the only AsX he has is AT (if he calls that pre) and flopped flushes.

I like it.

I'd rather c/c with Asx than c/r. See when you c/c good things like this can happen to you.

Meh i think BB's calling range is a lot wider pre if he's aware that button is a mega-fish as op stated? I'm just not sure many ppl check the river with the nuts a lot so I think shoving is fine unless this is the kind of player that lets buyins fly and will snap you off with Qs.

I'm changing my mind on this one. I think it's fine.

Haha cool. Ty everyone.

Got insta insta snapped by KsQx anyway so fml.

Nobody was expecting him to fold Ks, right? I sure wasn't. It's just unlikely for him to have that.

Yeah other than the nittiest of players, I don't expect many to fold it really. I just would expect him to dither over it a bit longer even though if he's not an idiot he has his river decision made on the turn. That said, I wonder how many 1/2 regs are betting turn and shoving river with the Qs.

Nobody is shoving Qs without history, but his flop c/c is pointless if he folds after hitting his flush.

I expected to see a fold from KsQ

Although opp technically made the "right" call I think based on his likely information about you that his call was very bad.

I think it's very hard to judge his river call since it was correct. I'm wondering what people think about his flop play? I mean he can be drawing dead or drawing to the second best hand and he has very poor IO as well. Seems very marginal to me although it's not hard to imagine that his hand has decent equity on the flop.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I expected to see a fold from KsQ

Although opp technically made the "right" call I think based on his likely information about you that his call was very bad.

if hes bad enough to c/c KsQ on this flop he's clearly not folding it on the river.

I just didn't expect him to have that.