Theory Exercise #2 by Irisheyes (Marshall28 remix)

1) I don't like c/c because we get v/b really light and we don't pick off bluffs. I don't like c/f since we have a pair. So really all we can do is bet. I think we should try to play our hand as a bluff and as such we should bet smallish because there's not much to protect from and we want to keep his range wide so that if we bet the turn he has a enough in his range to fold with a decent frequency. So in summary I just bet small then bet the turn again to exploit his heavy floating. btw I don't like c/c turn because the river will be very hard to play.

2) Same as number 1. My turn betting frequency wont be as high though because we bring our outs with us in the first example whereas we need to pick them up in this hand. I probably barrel any A, K, 5, 9, 6, 7, 4 and .

Like his flop call/turn fold range is probably at least 89s, 8Ts, 68s, 87s, 99, TT, A8s which is about 27 combos before we add gutshots. His call flop/call turn range is AQ, KQ, QJs, JJ, KK, which is 39 combos. If we bet 1/2 pot on the turn we only need him to fold 40% of the time and 27/39 is 70% so I suppose that means we can bet with no outs.

3) Same as 1 and 2. Easy turn bet on any A, K, J, 4. From the maths bit above we should bet 100% of turns lol but firstly I'm not sure if I trust my ranges etc.

4) Bet the flop small again. It makes us harder to exploit if we play all our range the same on this flop for a start. Obviously he needs to be paying attention first for us to need to worry about not being exploitable but I'm going to assume that firstly we play with the villain a lot and plan to play with him onwards into the future. Secondly I'm going to assume that he is paying attention and is attempting to exploit us. The fact of the matter is that betting is the best line in a vacuum anyway. Although he bets really thin when checked to on the flop he will also call a bet with any of the hands he would bet himself with. Secondly he calls with all his floats which as noted in the OP, are extensive. He also calls with all 8x obviously.

And now I suspect I have reached the crux of the matter. On the turn it would seem that my arguments above (that the turn is a really good bluff spot) dictate that we should not bet the turn with QQ because he folds so often. On the other hand it would appear that we should bet the turn with QQ to balance the line we intend to take with our air hands.

However, we can actually get away with not betting QQ here because we have enough AA/KK/KQ/AQ type stuff in our 3betting range to effectively balance our turn air betting range. This situation with QQ occurs so infrequently that it wont effect the balance situation that much one way or the other. The other reason why we would rather bet the turn with AQ than QQ is that we have the board way more locked down with QQ. Thus we a) don't need to protect b) can play much better on the river with QQ. So I think we should take the most in-a-vacuum +EV line with QQ and c/c the turn.

Of course, it would be bad to start c/c-ing AQ and KQ as well as QQ and then bet all my weaker hands then my turn betting range is inherently weak and I suspect that my opponent might pick up on this fact and use it against me. This is bad because just by the nature of how hard it is to make a pair and the high cbetting frequency I chose to have on this flop means that the range that I reach the turn with is heavily weighted towards air rather than nut hands. **Because of this I want to transfer some of the profit I could make with my infrequent semi-hands onto my more frequent air hands because that way I make more money with my range as a whole.

5) Similar to the ideas expressed in 1, 2 and 3.

**As I was typing I just realised that I'm 3betting this guy with more broadway type hands than 89o type hands so this bit about the 'heavily weighted towards air' might not be as true as I thought at first. I'll keep going in the original vein anyway.