Stack-a-stack-a-donk

I’ve been beating up on villain here by floating and betting the turn a whole lot.

He's folded almost everytime so far. Once he called me down with 2nd pair when I had a set. This is happening in the context of an insane session where I'm playing 50/30 at 4 tables.

Basically, I'm waiting for him to play back at me in this exact situation. If the board were coordinated/not paired I'd fold pretty easily. My thinking is that since he's good eventually he'll either hit a monster or bluff-raise me when it's very unlikely I have a hand (i.e. right now). This is pretty much nth level stuff I suppose... Thoughts?

My thinking is that he never does this w QQ+ but only with trips/boat since when c/raises me on the turn I fold out everything he beats (since he's not stupid he knows I m floating a lot with air) whereas by either 2-barelling or c/calling the turn he can get some value on river. So I'm not even really counting my gutshot as an out since he'll have a boat most of the time when he calls. My hand might as well be 27o.

***** Hand History for Game 5520775187 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, December 20, 19:47:15 ET 2006
Table Table 127024 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Sulzi77 ( $259.45 )
Seat 4: Zenmanz ( $191.30 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $397.30 )
Seat 6: testing7771 ( $177.35 )
Seat 5: ThanksFish ( $203 )
Zenmanz posts small blind [$1].
ThanksFish posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qd Th ]
testing7771 folds.
Sulzi77 raises [$7]
HERO calls [$7]
Zenmanz folds.
ThanksFish folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 8s, Jh, Js ]
Sulzi77 bets [$10]
HERO calls [$10]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
Sulzi77 checks.
HERO bets [$25]
Sulzi77 raises [$75]
HERO is all-In.

So you think he's playing back at you? But wouldn't he do the same thing with trips/boat?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

So you think he's playing back at you? But wouldn't he do the same thing with trips/boat?

yeah that's kinda why I posted ; idea being maybe it's better to make a big move when villain either has a monster of a bluff rather than a wide range?...

I mean if he's got JJJ or JJ888 that's fine. Just seems like it's either that or a frustration raise with yet another whiffed Ax or low PP so I prob don't have showdown value w Q high lol.

maybe a more succint way of framing the situation : if he's either got a bluff or a monster (not many monsters on this board) then I either win a big pot when he's steam-bluffing or lose a huge pot vs his monster but acquire an awesome image...

I hate this hand.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

I’ve been beating up on villain here by floating and betting the turn a whole lot.

Which makes his line exactly how I would stack you.

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I hate this hand.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

I’ve been beating up on villain here by floating and betting the turn a whole lot.

Which makes his line exactly how I would stack you.

agreed that this is how he would stack me

but if I have air here so much, what's the point?

Either this is genius or it's awful. I can't help but think it's awful. You want to be stacked for your image? But he already thinks you're a lagg, you said, and because of this he'll feel he's likely to be ahead. You may be thinking n levels but he's thinking precisely one, and he's right.

cool hand...I think it really depend how good your reads are. if you're pretty sure he could bluff c/r the turn, then I agree, this seems like it a time he'd do it so you made a nice play.
if he's likely "wussed out" before and waiting until he has trips to do that, well at least you look redonkulous but that's probably not worth it..

Originally Posted by biondino

Either this is genius or it's awful. I can't help but think it's awful. You want to be stacked for your image? But he already thinks you're a lagg, you said, and because of this he'll feel he's likely to be ahead. You may be thinking n levels but he's thinking precisely one, and he's right.

Yeah I think this sums up the situation you're in here Genitruc. You have him beat here if all he's trying to do is make a move on you, but you have the to give the guy some credit if he has been taking a beating from you for this long. If I was gonna make a stand with nothing I would have done it earlier, this guy has been waiting for cards though.

I agree with Biondino, you're thinking in levels but he's just on the first one. Someone, I think it was Demiparadigm had a signature which I think applies here perfectly, "To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental."

eww. i think you are beat here 95+% of the time.

Originally Posted by Bode-ist

eww. i think you are beat here 95+% of the time.

I think it's pretty obvious that Q high isn't the best hand and that's he's beat.
The question is if villain is ever folding after making this play. Maybe at the start of the session it's ok, but since you say that he's seen you be super laggy already, now's NOT the time to make this play but instead reap the benefits of being paid off when you actually do have a hand. At least that's what you always tell me. Follow your own advice!