sick river spot against Fullflush

I'm not sure if fullflush is mafews or not, but from what i hear he's really aggro but also a station. I've been playing really tight initially, rarely c-betting and folding some buttons. I flatted cause he had c-bet everything so far and i expected him to continue like that... maybe its a better reraise pre but i would have to stack off.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $100.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($10299.50)
Button ($49076.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
Button raises to $300, Hero calls $200

Flop: ($600) 2, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($600) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $400, Hero raises to $1200, Button calls $800

River: ($3000) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2600, Button raises to $47576.25 (All-In), Hero ?

KT doesn't fit unless it's KT of hearts.

There are a lot of worse 2 pair hands he could have. Could be chop chop. Would he raise 35 pre and check behind on a really good flop to c-bet? Sets fit, LDO. I'd pay this off.

If this is vs fullflush, I'm definitely never folding. He's such a spewtard.

I agree with Fnord that its possible he's shoving a worse two pair here sometimes. Or just bluff jamming really.

Fullflush can def have worst two pairs here so u should be happy to call here.

KThh or sets are likely too but then again fewer combos of that.

He has been so aggro and showing a TON of crazy river bluffs it would be very hard to fold here, plus he can defo have a worse 2 pair.
Im just guessing you ran into K10

You guys could at least try to analyze the hand

First off, I just want to say in no way is full flush retarded. I really highly doubt he's shoving less than A4 here if even that. I guarantee he'd shove AJ because I feel like not doing that would be dumb. At the same time, okay, he could be bluffing you off A4/A2. He could also have missed a gutshot or something like that and is trying to bluff you off a miss heart draw. Both of these are pretty doubtful. But given your getting like 2.5 to 1 and I'd say his most likely hand is AJ I'd call.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

First off, I just want to say in no way is full flush retarded. I really highly doubt he's shoving less than A4 here if even that. I guarantee he'd shove AJ because I feel like not doing that would be dumb. At the same time, okay, he could be bluffing you off A4/A2. He could also have missed a gutshot or something like that and is trying to bluff you off a miss heart draw. Both of these are pretty doubtful. But given your getting like 2.5 to 1 and I'd say his most likely hand is AJ I'd call.

I don't think fullflush is retarded at all, I think he's pretty good. That being said I can completely see him rationalizing some thought process on the turn like "wtf.. he's c/r when I bet the ace... and he knows top pair is the best I'm likely gonna have here, so I'm gonna float him here and shove all rivers". I also agree that he'd probably jam AJ, since he probably thinks you 3bet AQ pretty often pre.

I guess this is your most likely line with nut type hands. It does look bluffy in a sense, but I don't think villain perceives your range to have a lot of bluffs. I would at least give you credit for this line myself and I think a rebluff shove is just burning money against you here.

I think the river decision is pretty trivial though. Even if we assume he never bluffs and does this with AJ+/KhTh, we still have odds to call. If we include every combo of KT/KTs then it becomes a close fold, but cmon, we need to be good 30% to call, you can't seriously be thinking about folding?

You have to weigh AJ out of his range to want to fold, which is pretty much impossible because FF does nearly every move very quickly and this hand is no exception.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I guarantee he'd shove AJ because I feel like not doing that would be dumb. .

i completely disagree but if this is how he plays then we should certainly call

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I guarantee he'd shove AJ because I feel like not doing that would be dumb. .

i completely disagree but if this is how he plays then we should certainly call

Really? Isn't most of our range A4/A2? If thats the case, which I guess it may not be, there are two possibilities in my mind.

a. He doesnt shove AJ because A4 and A2 are folding most of the time.
b. If he does believe that, then he'll probably bluff/ turn some hands into bluffs.


I'm wondering what you think our range is here...

absolutely not. we called oop so A2o and A4o are out leaving a total of 4 combos for those hands combined.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

absolutely not. we called oop so A2o and A4o are out leaving a total of 4 combos for those hands combined.

five

sorry, 5. either way raising AJ is kind of ridiculous.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

sorry, 5. either way raising AJ is kind of ridiculous.

Even though it isnt good to be calling A2o/A4o to someone who is good and not raising 100% otb, considering FF and Max have no history persay, you don't think that FF is going to think these hands are more likely? I've never seen FF do anything crazy value wise besides making stationy calls and low equity bluffs... this certainly does not fit the criteria.

That being said, if he doesnt have AJ here ever, or we can only weigh it less in his range, then this seems like a fold doesn't it.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

sorry, 5. either way raising AJ is kind of ridiculous.

You have almost convinced me that it's marginal.

100bb against an aggressive player and top pair up isn't a felting hand for you guys?

although i don't call A4o and A2o oop preflop, he probably does... which makes it more likely that he assumes we do.

Originally Posted by Fnord

100bb against an aggressive player and top pair up isn't a felting hand for you guys?

It's poker. It requires a lot more thinking past this.

Also, from what i hear he's a total station... so can we add JJ to his range?

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by Fnord

100bb against an aggressive player and top pair up isn't a felting hand for you guys?

It's poker. It requires a lot more thinking past this.

Also, from what i hear he's a total station... so can we add JJ to his range?

haha levelz...

JJ doesn't change anything.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

It's poker. It requires a lot more thinking past this.

Pot was raised pre-flop, the money isn't really deep, board isn't crazy. Sometimes you just need to throw out all of the deep leveling stuff and stick with a good hand. Particularly against erratic or aggressive opponents.

That said, I made a moronic call river for $500+ last night that has me a little on tilt.

[x] top pair up itt

Originally Posted by Alexos

Fullflush can def have worst two pairs here so u should be happy to call here.

KThh or sets are likely too but then again fewer combos of that.

I'm picking him for a smaller two pair. Hard to put him on a set unless he opted not to re-raise on the turn. I agree he doesn't have K10 here unless he had the hearts.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by pocketfours

It's poker. It requires a lot more thinking past this.

Pot was raised pre-flop, the money isn't really deep, board isn't crazy. Sometimes you just need to throw out all of the deep leveling stuff and stick with a good hand. Particularly against erratic or aggressive opponents.

That said, I made a moronic call river for $500+ last night that has me a little on tilt.

Fnord there's really nothing deep about the thinking. You just have to be retarded to value raise less than AJ here, which according to nutsinho, who has a valid point, isnt even a good value raise here. So why would we call unless we thought he was bluffing (which would also be relatively stupid in this spot given history).

I cannot imagine folding this hand in this spot. Never, ever, ever would I fold here. If he shows you AA, or KhTh then so be it, he got you.

I'm trying and trying to find a way to fold this hand..... I can't. I'm going broke.

REBUY!!!

massimo what would you do with 222 or 444 here?

i would call for sure, its only 100bb and according to your cbet read he shouldn't have KT very often.

Also, he gets to this river with some air (hearts). It seems like a decent spot for him to turn pairs into bluffs on the river (maybe TT with the blockers), since he expects you to 3bet preflop with every hand that makes top two pair+ other than KT and a couple of sets.

Meanwhile you should be betting any two pair or decent ace here it would seem (perhaps not for this amount, i think you polarized your range a bit with this betsize), so i think its pretty clear you are gonna be betfolding with a lot of your range, the vast majority of your perceived range.

Also its noteworthy that you should never have KT as you would be leading that 100% of the time on turn, so he's almost freerolling you when he shoves AJ/A4.

Plus 2.75:1 etc etc seems like call.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

massimo what would you do with 222 or 444 here?

I think it makes a difference a bit just because some people are going to play AQ and 53 this way. It isn't going to be a huge difference in equity though cause you can't put too much weight on them, though. So if you believe this and its close it makes it a call.

I got the sense though that he'd just 3-bet the turn with those hands though so i dont put much weight to them.

What exactly about Max's read makes KT less likely? I'm just wondering if I didn't catch something that he wrote, because FF is surely the type to show up with KT here.


Although, I'm probably biased since that is in fact what he had....

KThh huh?

no just KTo

awesome

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

What exactly about Max's read makes KT less likely? I'm just wondering if I didn't catch something that he wrote, because FF is surely the type to show up with KT here.


Although, I'm probably biased since that is in fact what he had....

he just said villain had been cbetting every flop so far

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

What exactly about Max's read makes KT less likely? I'm just wondering if I didn't catch something that he wrote, because FF is surely the type to show up with KT here.


Although, I'm probably biased since that is in fact what he had....

I don't think there's anything about FF that makes him less likely to have KT. If anything, he's the type that would have more KT's here, since he'd peel that turn reasonably wide. But for that same reason, I don't put it past him getting to the river with a ton of crap here that he might either turn into a bluff or value shove lighter than AQ here.