Semibluff this turn?

Opponent is a loose/passive 40/12 or whatever. Probably calls the flop pretty light.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($308.05)
UTG+1 ($197.60)
Hero ($197.00)
BTN ($97.80)
SB ($388.60)
BB ($225.20)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, 3 folds, UTG calls $9

Flop: ($25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $18, UTG calls $18

Turn: ($61, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets or checks behind? We have $170 left.

Barring no reads I usually check it back and try to stack an 8 when I spike the hidden draws. Sucks to hit a 7 and get owned by 87 and obv 44 is a slight concern, but I just consider those coolers.

I probably bet paint rivers if checked to, to get him off 55-99 and FD's.

I don't like preflop... raising 5.5x from the cutoff over an utg limper with 56s.

As played check the turn and see a free card... getting check raised would be a disaster.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Barring no reads I usually check it back and try to stack an 8 when I spike the hidden draws. Sucks to hit a 7 and get owned by 87 and obv 44 is a slight concern, but I just consider those coolers.

I probably bet paint rivers if checked to, to get him off 55-99 and FD's.

oops ya sorry I just edited to include reads. Ok so should I bet more likely to fire the turn the fewer outs I have or the more outs I have?

Originally Posted by Triple Optics

I don't like preflop... raising 5.5x from the cutoff over an utg limper with 56s.

this play is very standard, you are missing out on alot of money if you dont

yeah thats a pretty standard raise

I bet ~2/3 pot. Your hand has no showdown value, you'd like to set up a river AI if you hit your draws, and a lot of his range (medium pp's) folds to a second barrel. Easy fold to a c/r.

Pre-flop is standard.

Pre-flop is super-standard. I'll only add that we might want to consider a smaller raise because we'll often end up with air and I don't like spewing money trying to get really loose players to fold. It sounds like we'd like to play big pot poker with this guy. However, if he's seeing flops, then giving up easy, bombs away!

The turn is a super-easy bet to build the pot and give him a chance to fold all the crap he might be peeling the flop with. No way I put a guy this loose on a boat, so I'm calling a lot of raises and would have to do the math on calling a shove vs something like trips.

What happened to "don't bluff a calling station"? I think I wanna go so far as to say I really dislike a 2nd barrel here. He's not folding a pair that he peeled the flop with, nor any draw (most of which beat us) and probably not all A highs either. Stacks aren't really deep enough to 3-barrel bluff and I have a sticky note on my monitor that says something like "Don't bluff for stacks against monkeys" anyway.

I don't think there's a pressing need to build the pot anymore when we have 170 behind in a 60$ pot already. If we hit and he leads the river we can shove easily. If he checks we can bet anything from pot to 2x pot since he loves to call and is much more likely to say "he could be bluffing" than to put us on a backdoor draw.

And though we have no showdown value, I'd much rather bluff at a scare card on the river (ie any J+, diamond) because at least he'll fold his missed 76, overs, and maybe some small pairs.

Though checking behind and folding to a 35$ bet on a missed river isn't pleasant, I think betting and having to check behind the river and watch him take it down with K4 is a disaster.

And finally we save a sizable bet when he does have a boat and we miss.

I don't think limping behind preflop is bad at all btw, though I probably prefer a raise.

Halv: No evidence that he's a calling station, just loose/passive pre and possibly on the flop. I think your average fish folds pp's lower than 8, 4's, missed overs and some flush draws to a second barrel. Stacks are 100bb deep, plenty deep for a 3 barrel bluff. In fact, I kind of like 2/3 on the turn and if he calls, shoving any non-diamond river.

Fnord: I think you can fold to a turn c/r shove, but you're right that if he c/minraises, it's an easy call.

I share halvsame's sentiments here.. check behind see if you hit.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

What happened to "don't bluff a calling station"? I think I wanna go so far as to say I really dislike a 2nd barrel here. He's not folding a pair that he peeled the flop with, nor any draw (most of which beat us) and probably not all A highs either. Stacks aren't really deep enough to 3-barrel bluff and I have a sticky note on my monitor that says something like "Don't bluff for stacks against monkeys" anyway.

I think you are underestimating how often loose/passives peel the flop. I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to assume that he will call the flop bet with stuff like AJ and 55 but fold that trash to a follow up on the turn. I don't have any evidence to say that he's a mega calling station, the type to call 3 streets with 55 in this spot and I don't think many people are that bad. I think theres a difference between fishies who will call a cbet to "see if their hand is good" and those that call multi streets.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

I don't think there's a pressing need to build the pot anymore when we have 170 behind in a 60$ pot already. If we hit and he leads the river we can shove easily. If he checks we can bet anything from pot to 2x pot since he loves to call and is much more likely to say "he could be bluffing" than to put us on a backdoor draw.

Ya this is true, betting does cost us EV when we get check raised by his monsters. However I don't think there are any hands in his range that are check calling a PSB or greater on the river. He'll c/f or lead/fold stuff like 77 to a PSB IMO.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

And though we have no showdown value, I'd much rather bluff at a scare card on the river (ie any J+, diamond) because at least he'll fold his missed 76, overs, and maybe some small pairs.

Meh ya possibly.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

I don't think limping behind preflop is bad at all btw, though I probably prefer a raise.

Only weak part of what is a very convincing argument. pf is an easy raise.

I'd appreciate it if people would address the question of wheather or not it is a better or worse semi-bluff with lets say 8 outs instead of 14.

Lets say the turn is the 3 instead of the 3? With the same action is betting better or worse?

Also just FYI I did a quick pokerstove and I'd estimate we have 23% equity against his turn check/shoving range.