really weird line and sizing by villain

Villain is the spot at the table. However he's not completely giving it a way. His stats are like 30/27 over like 400 hands or so. His cbet is lower than most like 45%. His timing on the turn was a couple of seconds his river timing was super insta.

His turn and river sizing are pretty interesting and confused me.

No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($802.50)
Hero (CO) ($643.90)
Button ($600)
SB ($669)
BB ($883.90)
UTG ($566.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
UTG bets $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($63) 7, 8, A (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $42, 1 fold, UTG calls $42

Turn: ($147) K (2 players)
UTG bets $54, Hero calls $54

River: ($255) 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $270, Hero?

I wouldn't be surprised if this was KK pretty often, though yah I admit his sizing on the flush card is kind of weird. This could even be AK.

The problem is he never has air here really, so meh I fold.

i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake

meh, most fishy players would be worried about the flush hitting yet wouldn't c/c the flop with a flush draw as pfr, I'd be surprised if he bet so much on the river with a weirdly played ak or kk. I think this is something like a flopped gutter that possibly picked up a heart draw as well on the turn that's now bluffing a scare card. I'd probably call.

Originally Posted by gabe

i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake

I wish I thought of cool things like this...

How often do you guys think this is missed hearts? fwiw at the time I really thought it was this a lot.

Originally Posted by gabe

i kinda like raising turn small vs someone like him and not putting any more money in. its a raise for info but he calls with worse often enough and it saves you from making a big river mistake

Yah I do this sometimes, but it definitely sucks when they jam over you on the turn. Its good vs players you have reads on, and you know they won't jam draws when you raise their turn bets.

dont think they ever jam worse on the turn. the only hard part is if they bluff river into you

I always ask myself before i consider calls with these types of hands "is he really ever v-betting any worse?" i think the answer is clearly no. So now you have to decide if he's bluffing, which it doesn't look like he is. It looks exactly like KK and probably is lol.

Gabes line is really clever especially if you dont think you can bet the river,

We don't think this looks like a slightly unconvincing attempt to bluff the scare card?

It looks to me like he's trying a little bit too hard to rep a flush. Its an insta pot+ bet - if he was looking for value wouldn't he take a little more time to decide how much we might be willing to pay off? Maybe he instead made up his mind when we called the turn that we would have included flush draws in his range and he would therefore barrel any diamond on the river. His earlier streets don't really look that much like a flush draw to me, but could probably be construed as one, especially as he cbets less than most.

I dunno, I play well below these stakes and you guys are a lot better than me, but in my games I would think it reasonably likely that he's trying to push me off with Ax or KQ or something like that, and it only needs to be the case ~35% of the time to call this (this obv goes up a bit if we think a shove is better because we think it will make him fold AQ and weak two pair type hands).

If I'm way off, please tell me why. I'm keen to learn.

TonyB - I think a lot of this hand comes down to what assumptions we make on his flop c/c. To me, even a player with 45% cbet is likely to cbet most drawsm, but more likely to check hands like 67, 89, 8T, 99-KK type stuff on this flop. So based on my assumptions, he never has air here and even though he rarely has a flush, there isn't much we beat on the river either. If anything, a player with a low cbet is more likely to check hands like A7/A8/AK on the flop or something than most other players.

Maybe his river shove is just trying to catch up for lost value with two pair/trips.

I agree with Max's logic, I'm confused as to what he has, but I also can't put him on any bluff.

I do the turn raise vs these guys and it works pretty well.

as played just fold.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Maybe his river shove is just trying to catch up for lost value with two pair/trips.

He didn't shove river fwiw he has like 200ish behind.

Im wondering if he ever checks river when he bets the turn here

Results, I'm kinda curious?

Well I called cause I really didn't understand what he was doing I thought he'd have missed hearts a lot. He had Jd9d.

from amaeteurish/averagish players the sizing on the river is really scary, especially when it goes undersized bet/huge overbet.

Pretty awesome comments from gabe!


this spot is frustrating because so many averagish players will play a hand in a way that makes no sense to us