Real scary board for a set

[noble007]

Any suggestions for turn?

PokerStars Game #13036128457: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/11/04 - 12:12:26 (ET)
Table 'Pleione IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: red_dawn_28 ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: Jokers61 ($43.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Noble007 ($55.15 in chips)
Seat 5: j1ludwig ($28.20 in chips)
Seat 6: Pajas ($57 in chips)
Pajas: posts small blind $0.25
red_dawn_28: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Noble007 [6c 6h]
Jokers61: raises $1 to $1.50
Noble007: calls $1.50
j1ludwig: folds
Pajas: folds
red_dawn_28: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 6d 8d]
Jokers61: bets $5
Noble007: raises $10 to $15
Jokers61: calls $10
*** TURN *** [9s 6d 8d] [7c]
Jokers61: checks

[ChrisTheFish]

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

[griffey24]

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

I agree with this, I would be much more worried if a T fell or a 5 fell than the 7. He was probably open or FD on flop, and you're likely still ahead.

[IowaSkinsFan]

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

[mixchange]

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

[griffey24]

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

ok yes.. on second thought I dont mind this. Any OESD cards that he had would give the board a straight, so we're only probably risking the 9 flush cards.

[Chopper]

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

you wouldnt throw a blocking bet of about $20 out there, and check behind the river just to get it to showdown and charge the diamond for his draw?

it just seems when i check behind this turn, i get a big bet thrown at me on the river regardless of the card.

[Robb]

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

I play lower stakes, but at NL10 this is my line. I think the flop rr is good. I'd bet 2/3 on the turn and call the shove. Even with a combo draw, he's not really got enough outs (9 flush + 4 gutshot) to call.

What was he raising and calling with that worries you? TT? AKs? AQs? With the action, he's got to know 2 pair is probably behind, so he knows he has to hit the draw. ATs? I just don't see his range really fitting this board very well. I think he got out ahead of his TP/AK hand and will fold to big bet on the turn.

I don't put him on a set of 9's or 8's either. I think he would c/r the flop if he did.

[mixchange]

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

whats nice about what ISF and I advocate here is that by checking the turn here villain is much more likely to bluff river with a busted draw. If the FD misses and he bets river strong, I just call. And if he hits his flush and the board pairs, he will lead and you get alllll his monies

[will641]

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

alright giggidy gig.

[Robb]

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

Three questions. First, why is the c/r flop a terrible line? Villain has to be worried about the board texture, too, and might want to take down the pot if he can right here.

Second, I pointed out what I thought villain might do with a set. I see this play all the time from villains at my level.

Third, what's the rationale for giving him a free card here? You're risking a pretty big pot by letting him draw for free. Is the payoff on the end worth it?

[mixchange]

important edit/clarification

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

Three questions. First, why is the c/r flop a terrible line? Villain has to be worried about the board texture, too, and might want to take down the pot if he can right here.

Why not to C/r w/ set

-In general its a line that doesn't maximize value vs. medium strength hands due to screaming " i love my hand!"

Why to bet flop w/ set

- it makes villain define his hand and the streets easier to play
-on a drawish board many players take the free card here which can wreck your set...without having any idea of what villain might have
-you need to start building a pot, hopefully all going in on flop or turn


so we bet the flop with sets OOP or IP, half a pot at least (2/3 is great if villain is likely to have hit) depending on texture if you think villain's range hit (or if its drawish), more.

If villain re-raises, we can decide to either:
1) push if we think villain loves his hand or if we think scare cards could kill or action
2) call the raise and c/r AI on the turn (oop). The pot is now big enough villain is committed, where the flop C/R defines our hand too early and allows villain to get away

Second, I pointed out what I thought villain might do with a set. I see this play all the time from villains at my level.

Bad, answered above.

Third, what's the rationale for giving him a free card here? You're risking a pretty big pot by letting him draw for free. Is the payoff on the end worth it?

missed fd bluffs + paired board flushes > the pots we lose when flush hits
also, if for some reason he was drawing on flop with like A10s/a5 he wont put us on a boat when our 10 out boat/quads hit and will stack off

[Robb]

Thanks, I appreciate the explanation. I'm glad the villains are playing badly!! I seriously see this every night from villains playing NL10.

[mixchange]

just wanted to point out I wasn't clear in my labelling on the last post... edited