NL Concept TP+FD, best line?

A very tight player opens UTG to 4bbs and I flat in the BB with :Th:

Flop (8bbs) :Tc:

What's our best line against this player's range? If you have pokerstove, stove the ranges first before answering.

Edit: 100bb effective

How tight is very tight? By my definition, we have 63% equity.

Lead with a pot-sized bet and push if reraised. Unless he has TT, it's a coinflip at worst. Factor in fold equity, and I think this is +EV.

But I could be waaaay off.

Careful with discussions on FE. Are we really going to try and fold out most hands here that he could raise pre with?

...yes? Against an overpair this is a pretty much a coinflip. Wouldn't we prefer to just take the pot down?

Wish we had postflop reads. I gave my villain a completely tight range. I think the best line is try to get it in as fast as possible, hopefully on flop when we have the most equity. Vs. TT+,AhKh,AhQh, we are only a 2% underdog with some fold equity with most villains. If we bet we also fold out other hands he can have.

c/r

Ok, I got some sense knocked in me. Can I change my answer

Originally Posted by grnydrowave2

...yes? Against an overpair this is a pretty much a coinflip. Wouldn't we prefer to just take the pot down?

So get it all in to win a 8BB pot? There is no fold equity here. We are only folding out hands we beat large AKo ,AQo. Coin flipping for small pots is never our goal.

It's marginal, but it's +EV, right? If we take Warpe's line, overpairs may fold some of the time. If we don't get the money in on the flop (against overpairs), we have to see a turn card, face difficult decisions and lose a ton of equity. Surely that's -EV?

How deep are the stacks? Is it even correct to call preflop here against a tight player (and out of position too)?

Is it a common misconception that spots like these are a great oppurtunity to balance our set lines?

I dump this pre. I often call in position though.

I'm thinking c/r flop unless he's aggro enough to raise overcards to a lead often enough that it is more valuable than snapping off cbets (vs most villains this is probably not true). We end up in a fucked up spot on the turn alot when he flat calls the c/r and we don't improve, though, and alot of villains want to see a safe turn card before committing with overpairs.

Actually I might just try to b/3b, firing alot of turns and/or rivers if he flat calls. There are sooo many scare cards for villain.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Actually I might just try to b/3b, firing alot of turns and/or rivers if he flat calls. There are sooo many scare cards for villain.

Do you make any difference (and which) in line or betsizing wether the scare card hit you or not? (9vsT, heart vs 7, 9vsJ, etc.)

Good question. The most obvious point is that if the turn card hits me I'm not slowing down whereas if the turn card is scary but I still get a call then I'm likely to give up on the river UI. I think I bet right out on A, 9, 7, h, maybe c/c a T and shove river?

Bet sizing is one of my poorer sides, I'm not sure how/if we should adjust it based on the card that hits. Someone chime in on this?

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that even if we're okay EV-wise with getting AI against AA on the flop we're still losing alot on the hand because we got the worse of it preflop. The -EV pre has to be made up for somehow, and I don't think that's going to be easy OOP against a strong range.

calling this OOP is definitly -EV, but against a nit its not as bad. I like a c/r here because villain will put you on a FD more often than not and want to get it in with an overpair.

Alright, I guess I might as well post my thoughts seeing how I started this thread. I failed to mention, yes 100bb stacks.

Villain's range here consists of 2 sets of hands, 1 set that we're flipping with, and one set of hands that we're killing. To me I'm not going to get any value out of the top of his range b/c I'm about a 48% dog and the pot is very small relative to 100bb stack sizes and he's never folding an over-pair or AhKh/AhQh.

The question then becomes how do we get maximum value out of the bottom part of his range. The AK/AQ/99 hands that did not hit this flop. Do we extract value leading into these hands or should we be looking to c/r or c/c against this range.

I don't b/3b AI with my sets frankly because it never works, and at the level I play I just don't even think the balance is necessary. Basically I'm looking to either c/r or c/c here and I'm still debating with myself which one is the better play.

The pot is small, I have a big hand, and if my opponent is behind he will not be improving to a better hand often. That's actually a recipe for slow-playing except there is a chance he improves to the best hand and not a second-best hand. So there's an argument for c/c.

If I c/r I get some value out of the AQ/AK hands and 99/88 probably aren't folding just yet. Like some have said though, c/r'ing when the stacks are still deep can lead to some fun turn decisions. Except that against the top-half of his range (the range I'm flipping with) I'd expect him to get it AI on the flop and against the bottom-half of his range I'd expect him to either fold to the c/r or flat-call and then I'd be well ahead of his range on the turn.

With 100BB, out of position with a draw that leaves me flipping, I'm looking to get this in on the flop. I like a lead and push if raised. This leaves us some fold equity and eliminates not getting paid if the obvious scare card hits. Check/calling is too weak and exposes our hand face up. Checkraising and calling a push is fine but leaves no FE obviously.

With 150BB+ this is completely different. Also, I fold this OOP with less than 200BB each and no one else in the pot.

Im getting a little annoyed with one thing here guys.

WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING TO FOLD THAT HAS EQUITY IN THIS POT?

I don't get all of this FE bs, if he folds, he's folding a much worse hand. He's not folding overpairs or better flush draws. FE's value is in making a better hand fold really, that's not going to happen, find me a better hand that folds. I'm trying to get value out of worse hands.

I'm not asking a simple question here really, I don't need to be told to get the money in quickly, I know all of that. I'm trying to get paid off by the bottom end of his range.

Your hand is strong enough here that you don't need fold equity. 8bb is enough dead money to make an open push 0 ev assuming no fe. But c/r is best because you get a little value from worse hands. c/c is bad b/c your equity drops a lot on a blank turn and you could easily lose value if a heart hits.

I based my reasoning on the assumption that we're not getting paid by hands we're beating. I suppose you could c/r and pick off a c-bet, but that's it really.

Originally Posted by grnydrowave2

I based my reasoning on the assumption that we're not getting paid by hands we're beating. I suppose you could c/r and pick off a c-bet, but that's it really.

You are absolutely missing every point I'm trying to make. You need to realize that the only value we could possibly get in this hand is from hands we're beating. We are not getting any value at all from hands that are flipping with us. We're a 48% dog to hands beating us, the pot only has 8bbs in it, you take out a few more for the rake, and we're at like 0EV against hands willing to felt the flop against us.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Im getting a little annoyed with one thing here guys.

WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING TO FOLD THAT HAS EQUITY IN THIS POT?

The fact that you ask this in big capital letters makes me wonder whether you're making some questionable call-downs. People don't fold overpairs that often but sometimes they do and the way you ask your question makes it seem like you've never done it in your life. If hero knows villain is a nit, it's not absurd at all for villain to think about folding QQ or JJ because just calling pre-flop with KK or AA is a perfectly valid line in this spot.

Agreed with mcatdog. But I still want to change my answer to c/r.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't b/3b AI with my sets frankly because it never works, and at the level I play I just don't even think the balance is necessary.

They don't raise your bets?

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Im getting a little annoyed with one thing here guys.

WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING TO FOLD THAT HAS EQUITY IN THIS POT?

The fact that you ask this in big capital letters makes me wonder whether you're making some questionable call-downs. People don't fold overpairs that often but sometimes they do and the way you ask your question makes it seem like you've never done it in your life. If hero knows villain is a nit, it's not absurd at all for villain to think about folding QQ or JJ because just calling pre-flop with KK or AA is a perfectly valid line in this spot.

You're being serious? ppl do not fold overpairs at 6max ever on this flop.

Also, how does my question in caps reference my calling tendencies.

Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I don't b/3b AI with my sets frankly because it never works, and at the level I play I just don't even think the balance is necessary.

They don't raise your bets?

I've learned there's more value in c/r'ing than leading, you'd be surprised how many players either just call/fold to a flop lead in a raised pot. Consequently, I've started to lead air much more.

i'm late to join this party, and may be out of my league, but i would have c/red, too.

my reasoning is that i want to get something from a cbet that i am beating, but would fold to me if i lead out. and, i also dont want to see a turn against any part of his range. and, imo, the c/r is the most powerful message i can send to flush draws that beat me and overpairs. if he calls, i may get aggressive on the turn if i improve. if he pushes over my c/r, its an easy decision for me...when things are still relatively cheap.

thats my .02, and i'm sure its flawed. btw, my "very tight range" was way too loose. i figured 66+, AJs+, AQo+, and against that we are 70% faves. and, one other thing, i think that "very tight" players DO fold a good bit of better hands here. a c/r makes them think they are up against a set, and only carry on with KK+, or maybe AKs as long as your c/r takes away pot odds.

but, you most likely play 2-3 limits higher than i do, so that may just be my "micro-brain" talking.

Originally Posted by Chopper

if he pushes over my c/r, its an easy decision for me...when things are still relatively cheap.

I hope your easy decision is to call.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Originally Posted by grnydrowave2

I based my reasoning on the assumption that we're not getting paid by hands we're beating. I suppose you could c/r and pick off a c-bet, but that's it really.

You are absolutely missing every point I'm trying to make. You need to realize that the only value we could possibly get in this hand is from hands we're beating. We are not getting any value at all from hands that are flipping with us. We're a 48% dog to hands beating us, the pot only has 8bbs in it, you take out a few more for the rake, and we're at like 0EV against hands willing to felt the flop against us.

I don't think I'm missing the point. I understand now that flipping with an overpair/better draw is 0EV. But I still don't see how we're going to extract much from a hand like AKo.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

ppl do not fold overpairs at 6max ever on this flop.

they do if they read a c/r as a set line (esp nits)

Originally Posted by Warpe

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

ppl do not fold overpairs at 6max ever on this flop.

they do if they read a c/r as a set line (esp nits)

Sweet, I'd love for a c/r to fold out JJ/QQ but I just don't think it's going to happen.

Warpe brings up an interesting point though, what's a more set-like line, is it b/3b or is it c/r.

I've started c/r'ing my sets lately.

On a twotone flop my set line is usually b/3b but I'll c/r if I'm confident villain will bet, which in this case we can be.

i think lead is good here, even hu

Originally Posted by Warpe

On a twotone flop my set line is usually b/3b but I'll c/r if I'm confident villain will bet, which in this case we can be.

Do we b/3bet typically to get our opponents to fold or to get them to pay off our sets.

What's the reasoning behind b/3bet AI? I've never had an opponent raise a flop and fold to my shove when I had a FD so I started playing them differently. So b/3b AI is good with a set on a two-tone board really. Otherwise I like c/r'ing.

this is a good question and a looooot of the discussion here is just flawed- I'm just gonna post what I think about theory wise and formulating optimal lines



1. if he has AT+ hes not folding (he can also have all sets)
2. his approx utg range is 22-AA, AT+ KQ
3. we have approx. 48% equity against point 1

so.....

first, this hand is +ev no matter how we play it basically, besides check/calling every street (against avg opponents)

second, for those of you saying "if we c/r and intend to get it in on the flop its neutral ev," you're wrong. The reason is his hand range is so narrow we can outplay him on the turn. Some percent of the time he will call our checkraise in position and we can check/fold, lead, or check/raise turn, or check/call a 2/3 pot or less bet (on a blank)- the last two streets should be more +ev for us than for him.


so the question becomes how do we extract value from the hands in his range which r drawing very slim against us and not just flipping. There's two ways:

1. we can c/r- this gets one bet from AK AQ AJ KQ smaller pairs than tens and is obviously best against opponents who cbet too much. many of our opponents will check behind 22-99, KQ AJ-AQ on this flop against the range of a BB cold caller.
2. We can check/call- this allows him to fill one of his overcard/overpair hands with a heart and offers good implied odds, it also projects weakness so we may get a bet from small pairs on brick rivers. we also are more likely to check/raise and get paid on the river if we fill.

downside is- our equity gets way worse on the turn if we don't fill, its slightly bad metagame, we get drawn out on+ pay off sometimes and can never check/fold cept against nittiest most predictable opponents.

3. We can lead- this is my preferred line against nitty opponents because a bet/3bet will offer us more equity against hands like JJ, AT. also, these guys will NEVER fold 22-99 on the flop- and we will probably get 2bets out of them when a blank turn goes check/check. This also adds a ton of value for the times when we fill cause we widen our range so much by leading (as in we can have anything from KQ to a gutter to midpair to a set). also, we will occasionally get bluffraised by AK AQ AJ here and then win 2bets on flop when we 3bet shove.

So conclusion is, we should take all three lines sometimes (and actively switch between them against strong opp), using one or the other based on our opponent's aggression postflop+our image+ metagame+ history. however, I think against the average nitty reg at ssnl and msnl, leading T9 on this specific board texture is probably our best line...

So basically you believe leading will cause our opponent to play his hand incorrectly against our ranges/specific hand while c/r'ing will allow him to play his range perfectly/better against us?

Am I understanding that correclty?

You're looking at future streets here, so what's the best line to get value out of the worse hands on future streets? If I c/r flop and check a blank turn my hand is somewhat face up to a thinking player. If I lead the flop and am flatted, it's a fairly easy turn bet or c/bomb.

If we think smaller pairs are not folding the flop then c/r becomes a much better line as it gets 2 bets in, problem being we give villain the opportunity to check behind the flop.

Sauce, I just want to make sure I'm understanding you correctly though, you like leading b/c of the way it sets up future streets and not for the possibility to b/3bet AI?

it depends on how you think the guy plays postflop. if you have no idea about this, then you should fold preflop (but i would call on button regardless).

i dont like leading against unknown TAG because people dont raise cbets like they used to. people do cbet too much though, so c/r

spenda i like it for both reasons- i think small pairs fold to a c/r because our range is significantly stronger

Easy check/raise since just about any card that improves you will shut him down. Shove over a re-raise.

Yet another spot where I hate being 100+ deep.