Quote Originally Posted by jo
Quote Originally Posted by zenbitz
I think this might be a hand where you want to *discourage* bluffs vs. TAGG. So, check/call turn is bad (although check/folding to a 1/3rd pot might be worse). check/raise is clearly the worst because his draw is (a) not that likely (b) not going to call anyway, nor will he call with like AJ.

I guess bet 1/2 pot or less (1/3?) and fold to a raise. Then same on a safe river (keeping in mind that you are not killing his odds to draw with T9 or clubs or even AK)

being OOP sucks
But given the size of the pot and the size of my stack (and the fact that if he has me beat he probably isn't going to raise and let me know), pretty much any reasonably-sized bet that I make commits me to my stack, no?
Basically - once he calls your flop bet, you REALLY REALLY want to show down as cheap as possible. checking twice and praying he feels the same way is not the worst option (we discovered that's c/r a/i...).

Checking the flop is probably good, although it encourages bluffs we can't call, and it's so standard to c-bet in a re-raised pot that the check is very wierd... on the other hand maybe you'll trick him into slowing down with the best hand.

I think Gen's line is best IF villian is known to be aggressive/spewy/bluffy. If he's more tricky then betting is probably better.

Anyway; assuming you bet the flop and he calls, you are now worried. There is 144 behind and 163 in the pot.

If you bet like 40 (1/4th pot!!!) on the turn what is he going to do? If he raises, I think you can fold. Bluff raising here would be very spewy in big pot like this.

He will probably just call, so pot is 240 with 100 behind.... then check/fold river.

This costs you $40 more than check/folding turn, but you get to price the river.... AND the times that you are actually winning, you win $40 more (assuming he checks behind river) AND it discourages him from betting with a worse hand (either turn or river) the turn because he has to bluff-raise you, the river because even a shove gives you 3:1.

The other danger is that he thinks AJ/TT is TEH NUTZ!

Is this really better than just check/folding turn? Probably not.