multiway pot, TP and FD

Villain in this hand run abotu 20/10, high AF over 100 hands. I didn't want to raise the flop because he was either folding bad hands or stacking off IMO. His turn bet makes me think he doesn't have a low two pair, probably high two pair, set, draw, or other semibluff. The question really is: is the river a lead or c/r?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($198)
BB ($113.25)
UTG ($232.95)
MP ($200)
Button ($83.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, 8.
UTG raises to $8, MP calls $8, Button calls $8, Hero calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($34) T, 5, 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $18, Button folds, Hero calls $18, UTG folds.

Turn: ($70) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $42, Hero calls $42.

River: ($154) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks (pretty quickly), [color=#CC3333]

I probably lead river here as I dont think he'll bet a lot of the time.

i think your two best river options are fake-blocker weak-lead and CR.

if you lead river strong you re either bluffing (with what lol... doesn't make much sense) or you have exactly the hand that you have

btw i like leading this flop and looking to get it ai on the flop but that doesn t really matter

i like getting all in on the flop here against this player- so lead or c/r

ur line is a lot better if the flop is like Kc Qh 2h and you have KJhh.

as played i lead river (which is y i dont like ur line obv)

Checkraise the flop to $50 and get it in if he pushes. As played lead river.

As i said earlier i lead river because 1/2 players just dont vbet light at all and may check behind two pair here.

Why do we c/r the flop? Our hand isn't really vunerable and it has sd value?

I would have check raised the flop as well. But as played I would lead the river as a thinking player might check behind when the flush card comes. Your own hand range against a thinking player has been narrowed down a lot by calling flop and turn.

The reasoning behind check/raising the flop for me would be to get maximum value from a great hand.

i think leading is better than check raising here since the CR gets us into a bad spot a lot of the time on the turn

many thinkers will call the CR putting you on a monster/draw and look to get it in on a non-heart, non A turn.

by leading we have a better chance of getting it in the flop and we can avoid never getting priced in as a relatively big dog on the turn

also when you bet flop and miss the turn a fun line is to check turn and check-raise every river if villain checks behind on turn

I think the reason why a river check may be better than you guys think is because everyone wants to c/r or lead a combodraw on the flop here (pair and FD, FD and overs, etc)...

Originally Posted by Massimo

I think the reason why a river check may be better than you guys think is because everyone wants to c/r or lead a combodraw on the flop here (pair and FD, FD and overs, etc)...

this is actually a very good point, but remember who you are playing against (200NL). I wouldn't expect your typical opponent to be capable of considering that. Check/calling two streets appears (on the simplest level of thought) to be a drawing hand, and the draw got there on the river.

oops deleted dbl post