from september graphies thread:

Quote Originally Posted by Marshall28
Quote Originally Posted by griffey24
I also feel like I bet rivers a ton in spots (esp in position) with marginal hands that most people would probably just check back. This results in almost every small/medium sized pot that most people have as counting towards showdown winnings, as counting towards my non-showdown winnings. I think this adds up huge over the span of 40k hands in a month. (Imagine how many times you get to the river in a 10 bb pot and just check back where you could make a very very thin value bet. 100-200 times a month? That's 10-20 buyins that are interchangable between showdown and non-showdown right there)
I think I have to call you out on this one.

It's almost ridiculous to assume that because you are v-betting the river more thinly that its the biggest reason for your high red line and low blue line.

If you really were making thinner value bets and bluffing more often with good frequencies, your blue line would not go down, it would go WAY UP because you would be inducing c/r bluffs from worse hands, you'd be be getting called by worse hands and you'd be able to checkraise (and b/3b) the river more thinly for value. All of these things imply that you are getting to showdown, and if you are doing them better than your opponents, it would be impossible for it to be the cause of your blue line.

I think you need to take another look at this and re-consider.
Obviously if players are paying a lot of attention and adjusting properly, then a lot of what you said is true. But you're making a lot of very BIG assumptions about our villains I feel.

The biggest is that they are in fact capable of making these adjustments to thin value bets in the first place. But the fact is, very few people are suddenly c/r'ing me lighter on the river for value, or seemingly c/r as bluffs either. Most people are content in either folding or taking the cheap price I'm giving them and calling with whatever they have.

And to be able to b/3bet more on the river also involves our villain's participation, in raising what they feel is our thin bet to begin wtih. Once again, this seems to happen very rarely so I don't think we can make these assumptions.