|
I read ISF Theorem again today and I happened to play the following hand today - after playing it, it occurred to me that it might be an example of ISF Theorem in play. Please correct me if wrong (and yes I'm well aware this could be just pure spew combined with luck.)
$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($47.84)
Hero ($28.85)
MP1 ($22.34)
MP2 ($26.22)
MP3 ($24.31)
CO ($38.90)
BTN ($24.65)
SB ($6.24)
BB ($23.75)
Pre-flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, MP1 raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($12.35, 4 players)
Hero bets $6, MP1 calls $6, 2 folds
Turn: ($24.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
River: ($24.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, 1 fold
PF: Fold Pre, I know. My image at this time was nitty and I figured this suited connector would be nice to mix it up with. When the 3bet with overcalls came back to me I figured a lot of pocket pairs and premium cards were in play and that my hand would not be dominated and could flop well - and if it flopped a straight or flush draw I would be looking at huge implied odds.
Flop: I figure my perceived A range in this spot is AcKc, QQ, TT, 77 - and if they knew the type of hand I actually played they could put KcJc, Jc9c and 9c8c in there also. Although multi-way pots tend to be honest I decided to bet on a bluff. I figured I'd get a lot of credit for a hand here and any club, card that finishes a straight (preferably J as AK is probably perceived as more likely) and a paired board (suggesting my set goes boat) would allow me a bluffing opportunity on later streets if called. Further, I figured I was somewhat likely to be called by cc hands where if no clubs came I could have showdown value with my pair.
Turn: Flush completes, board pairs and I may now have flush, full house or quads with any hand in my perceived flop A range - if I had any of those nut hands and with $13 behind and a $24 pot I might check hoping that my value bet is more likely to be called on the river.
River: Board double-pairs which just reinforces that I may very well have a full house now.
My opponent is the one who put in the 3bet pre and he just flat called my 1/2 PSB on the flop - I think his range is heavy with AA, KK, JJ and AK. QQ and AQ possible but quite unlikely due to the low number of combinations and lack of aggression.
In short, my actual holding is air, but my range is heavy with nut flushes and full houses where my opponents range is heavy with 3 pair hands. With a $24 pot and $13 behind I think he'll feel forced to call a shove thinking I can bluff - so instead I put out a 'callable' 'value' bet of $8 - and he folds.
ISF Theorem? Yes/No/Panic?
|