Quote Originally Posted by zenbitz
OK, just so I understand, here are the cases:

1) He has no ace, folds, EV = 0 (since you would win the same by calling)
2) He has an ace, calls, EV = 0 (split either way)
3) He has AK/66/TX calls, EV = -710
4) He has an ace, FOLDS, EV = +240

For this to work, he has to fold an ace 3 times as often as he's ahead of you.
I assume he never calls without an Ace.

Also, I feel that $20 turn bet carries very little information. It's just as likely to be a misclick as anything. You are going to feel dumb if this is an idiotic slowplay (an attempt to get aggro gabe to raise???)

The silly turn really messes up the reads. Clearly, it decreases the chance he has you - but it also indicates the same as you, decreasing the chance he folds an ace.
i agree with this. i don't think he folds an 3 times as much as often as he has you beat.

a bit unlucky to lose to T8, tho, isn't it?