Quote Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote Originally Posted by lambchopdc
A. 9/44 - A club hits, Double pushes, H@LL folds. Equity = $1413
B. 2/44 - The Ad or Ah hits, Double pushes 100% of the time, H@ll folds. Equity = $1413
C. 1/44 - The As hits, Double most likely pushes the Ace even tho the runner runner hits. Equity = $5144
D. 8/44 - A random spade hits, we'll assume double bluffs half of the time here and check/folds to H@LL's push the other half. Equity = (5144*.5)+(3733*.5) = $4438.50
E. 7/44 - An offsuit 3, 4 or 6 hits, most likely the same action as D. Equity = (5144*.5) + (3733*.5) = $4438.50
F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70

Now if we use the odds of each scenario occuring we come up with H@LL's equity of calling the turn bet:

A. (9/44)*$1413 = $289.02
B. (2/44)*$1413 = $64.23
C. (1/44)*$5144 = $116.91
D. (8/44)*$4438.50 = $807.00
E. (7/44)*$4438.50 = $706.13
F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82

Sum of Equities= $3333.11
Um, where are you getting any of these numbers? Somehow folding on the river nets him $1.5K? What?
Here is his chipstack after each of the scenarios
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