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Ok, I was bored so for some reason I decided to analyze this hand (i have no clue why), so here is what I came up with:
Assuming H@LL puts double on AcXc with no pair and is unaware he is dominated, he can assume that any non-club 3,4, or 6 will give him the best hand.
If H@LL folds on turn his remaining stack will be $2213.
If H@LL calls on the turn there are six situations that could occur based on the information available to him (Again this is assuming he does not put double on exactly A3 or A4.) Here is his chipstack after each of the scenarios (44 unknown cards in the deck after taking out Double's AXs):
A. 9/44 - A club hits, Double pushes, H@LL folds. Equity = $1413
B. 2/44 - The Ad or Ah hits, Double pushes 100% of the time, H@ll folds. Equity = $1413
C. 1/44 - The As hits, Double most likely pushes the Ace even tho the runner runner hits. Equity = $5144
D. 8/44 - A random spade hits, we'll assume double bluffs half of the time here and check/folds to H@LL's push the other half. Equity = (5144*.5)+(3733*.5) = $4438.50
E. 7/44 - An offsuit 3, 4 or 6 hits, most likely the same action as D. Equity = (5144*.5) + (3733*.5) = $4438.50
F. 27/44 - Any other card hits, we'll assume Double bluffs 50% of the time, 40% of the time folds to H@LL's push, and 10% makes an amazing call with A high. Equity = (1413*.5)+(3733*.4)+(0*.1) = $2199.70
Now if we use the odds of each scenario occuring we come up with H@LL's equity of calling the turn bet:
A. (9/44)*$1413 = $289.02
B. (2/44)*$1413 = $64.23
C. (1/44)*$5144 = $116.91
D. (8/44)*$4438.50 = $807.00
E. (7/44)*$4438.50 = $706.13
F. (27/44)*$2199.70 = $1349.82
Sum of Equities= $3333.11
To Recap -
Fold on Turn: Equity = $2213.00
Call on Turn: Equity = $3333.11
In the long run H@LL makes $1120.11 by calling that turn bet given the known information and the read.
Weee that was fun.
EDIT: Assuming H@LL's thinking was anywhere close to this his river call was standard and most likely planned.
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