Quote Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill
Quote Originally Posted by Jager
Quote Originally Posted by martindcx1e
So, for example, do you mean if you cbet the flop which has 2 spades and villain calls and the turn brings the 3rd spade you bet again here?
YES!!!!!!!!

...because if villain had a draw on the flop most players even at 100NL will raise your c-bet. Obviously this would be opponent dependent (i.e. a loose-passive floating on a 2spade flop is more likely to have a draw than a TAG). Typically though villain would be holding a middle pair type hand and is hoping to win the pot if weakness is shown on the turn.
I think scare card betting is VERY dependent on the opponent and these statements are far too general. If he's weak/passive its great, but against an aggro he's just as likely to play the same game and re-raise you. I don't like this scare card situation to be a blanket situation because I think bluffing is one of the most villain-dependant parts of the game.

Also, let's remember that the third spade's value matters greatly. First, what was on the flop? If there were 2 broadway cards and your cbet was called and the 3rd spade hits, you have no idea where you are and it's probably bad to bluff if you've totally whiffed. If it's been all mid or low cards or better yet one broadway card and 2 low cards, villain has a higher chance of folding to a blankish-turn spade. We have to think of the 3rd spade in context to the board, it is not so cut and dry. Did the 3rd spade also add a potential straight (and does villain like Sc's)? Is the 3rd spade one that often likely helped villain in a non flush way, e.g. making a 2pair or giving him top or middle pair?

If the third spade is somewhat of a "blank" in regards to his range, I bet the scare card a much higher amount, and against a wider range of opponents. Basically, it depends on your read of villain's range. With another spade that's a broadway card on a one-broadway card flop, there are too many hands villain calls with for the bluff to have a high success rate (any Axs, straight possibilities, flush, pair/2p). A broadway non-spade narrows his range more and is an easier bluff, but again we have to worry if it helped him enough for him to call.

I also highly disagree that most players at 100NL/200NL will re-raise their flush draw. Only the better players do this, I wouldn't say a majority.