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Well i worked through it for myself...
These ranges are based on a known history of villain calling 3bets light, and after he has bet the flop once checked to:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
87,120 games 0.005 secs 17,424,000 games/sec
Board: Tc 7d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.347% 28.35% 00.00% 24696 0.00 { KhQd }
Hand 1: 71.653% 71.65% 00.00% 62424 0.00 { TT+, 77, 44, ATs, KTs, T9s, 87s, 32s, ATo, KTo, T9o, 87o, 32o }
In this example i thought c/ring is better than bet/folding because i figured we would have plenty of F.E. and are only WB Q-Q+/10-10/7-7. But those hands make up 1/4 of his range, and A-10/K-10 probably call the c/r a high % of the time. In fact if TPGK/TPTK never fold along with the big pairs/sets, 50% of his range is never folding so then c/r definitely sucks.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
93,060 games 0.005 secs 18,612,000 games/sec
Board: Tc 7d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.512% 42.22% 00.29% 39291 271.00 { 8d6d }
Hand 1: 57.488% 57.20% 00.29% 53227 271.00 { TT+, 77, 44, ATs, KTs, T9s, 87s, 32s, ATo, KTo, T9o, 87o, 32o }
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I thought we had a lot more F.E. before i went through and gave villain a range. Also its likely we will be able to get it AI on the flop with our double gutshot when our equity is best since most of villain's range is raising the flop.
These are the ranges that i came up with against an opponent who has no history of calling 3bets light:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
53,460 games 0.005 secs 10,692,000 games/sec
Board: Tc 7d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.120% 44.09% 00.03% 23569 17.50 { 8h6h }
Hand 1: 55.880% 55.85% 00.03% 29856 17.50 { TT+, 77, AQs+, 32s, AKo }
Bet/3bet seems to be the best line with this hand.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
42,570 games 0.005 secs 8,514,000 games/sec
Board: Tc 7d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.411% 17.41% 00.00% 7412 0.00 { KhQd }
Hand 1: 82.589% 82.59% 00.00% 35158 0.00 { TT+, 77, AQs+, 32s, AKo }
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Sauce i see now that comparing a double gutshot SD and K-Qo's equity on that flop was a mistake. With K-Qo only having 17% equity, we would need a ton of F.E. to make a c/r +EV and against this range we really don't have any. With 8-6s getting it AI on the flop is what we want equity-wise and villain's range is going to help us do that so we might as well let him.
Another thing i took away from this: future posts in this thread need to be asked in the form of a question.
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