AQ, weird river spot. Can I b/f here?

Villain is 29/22, 50% c bet over 140 hands, so far he's folded to one 3-bet and 4-bet the other time. He's a multitabling reg that starts tables.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 36.36% 06.82% 16 3.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 56.818% 50.00% 06.82% 22 3.00 { AQs, KQs, QTs+, JTs, AQo, KQo, QTo+, JTo }

Thought about b/f like 24 or something but, If this is his continuing range to my small river bet then c/f looks better. I wouldn't expect him to be turning worse Qs into bluffs very often and KQ and JTs getting there kind of sucks. I didn't give him JTo here since A he might not open it from here and B he'll likely raise JT on then flop a non 0% of the time.

I don't like c/c since I'd expect a lot of club draws to raise this flop and I'm likely mauled by his range on the river.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($170.85)
Button ($111)
Hero (SB) ($148.65)
BB ($240.55)
UTG ($107.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
UTG bets $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9) 3, Q, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $6.50

Turn: ($22) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, UTG calls $16

River: ($54) K (2 players)
Hero?

3bet pre 5 handed vs reg with wide preflop stats imo.

I really dont understand way u lead. he will cb a wide range and i think id c/r flop here.

Don't think I'd stuck his lowish c-bet stat in at the tome you responded that was my main reason for leading. It's only over 6 hands, but still think it's indicative that he doesn't c bet as much as most regs and likely not much on this board 3 handed.

I feel like a 3 bet gets a fair bit of respect oop vs his MP range and he hasn't called one yet. I'm not comfortable 3 bet, 5 bet jamming AQ here without more of a preflop dynamic.

id 3bet preflop but whatever i suppose. I dont super hate it.

I still think you should check flop into him, sample size is a non factor. Regs who are 29/22 playing 100nl I assume cb too much. And c/r is sweet when he doesnt look like you can have too many value hands. Also to note if we were IP i may consider just calling flop if he cb it.

If you 3 bet what's your plan if he 4 bets, you 3 bet/folding and hoping he flats some dominated stuff etc?

Any thoughts on river?

Depends on how long he waits and how much he bets but I cud be happy enough to commit here. Also he will call a 3bet a fair amount too which we dont mind.

on river, we can vb a small amount if you think he has a weaker hand and wont bluff raise any hands u beat. id prob b/f smallish.

I'd c/c flop and go from there. Leading isn't bad but don't put too much weight on this sample. He's more likely to cbet air since he opened utg.

P4s whats your thinking for c/c oop, c/c flop and turn, maybe fold river?

You didn't mention any reads for BB. If BB is fishy, then leading the flop here is super standard, no?

This is a very well played hand given current stats.
River bet size should be about 18 to get a crying call from QJ/QT maybe even TT/JJ/A9.
People are overly concerned with block bets being bluff raised but the river bluffing frequency is really low in in the small and mid-stakes games.

(CR flop is marginal/BE given stack sizes and ranges,
Only other conceivable line is check calling flop and leading turn.)

Oh and as played CR river AI is fine too. (As a bluff obv.)

Didn't see flop was threeway. Leading seems good. I'd bet small on the river and probably call with some small % when faced with a shove.

Originally Posted by Pioneer

Oh and as played CR river AI is fine too. (As a bluff obv.)

Don't do that.

I would play it same as you (no 3bet and with this sizing) and if you think, that he is not turn some worse Q into bluff, I would probably just c/f river





- I have question about river bet sizing (if we are betting):

Everyone wants to bet small, but it seems weird for me - we are betting only because we want worse Q to call, right?? But on the river flush draw missed and small bet seems "value-ish" more than standart bet, so I think worse Queens are more likely to hero call bigger bet, than something small.

What do you think about this??

Originally Posted by Pioneer

Oh and as played CR river AI is fine too. (As a bluff obv.)

this is really bad imo

I like the idea of betting a little bigger for those reasons, since this guy isn't a fish that's just going to snap because of lol pot odds. Also if we bet bigger he'll bluff raise us pretty much 0% of the time and even though we'd be getting like 5:1 to call a shove, we still have an easy b/f since we've reduced his bluffing frequency to 0.

Thoughts?

No need to bet big when you're bluffing and I don't see any special need for exploitative sizings in this spot. I very much doubt he's going to bluff shove over a bet regardless of sizing.

But if I were in villain's shoes and had QJ, QT I would need much less "read and dynamic" to call something like 37 than something like 22 or w/e (and I would probably never call those 22)


- anyway I would probably fold those hands to bigger bet too (because Hero range seems like AQ, KQ, sets, FD and maybe JT), but I think bigger bet is more callable, than small bet, because (as Hero) we are probably never bet small, if we miss

- as Hero: I'm still c/folding this river

sorry i made a mistake, didnt see 3 way so flop c/r is bad given a person is yet to act. id c/c flop as standard but lead if theres a fish.

Didn't realize flop was 3 handed at first either.
PF 3 betting is an option and is in my range vs certain vils. Ya getting 4 bet sucks. But against regs i think there is still a ton of value to be had in 3 bet pots since people give less and less credit these days.
As played my default would be to C/C flop and go from there.
River I see your thinking in betting a little bigger to rep missed Club draws. Sounds like hes a thinking player but for him to call with worse seems to be a history dependent play. C/C is prob what Id do.

as played:
- Da Rabbit said, that villain will not probably turn his worse Queens into bluff, so if he is betting (after our check) we must fold, because his betting range is stronger than our AQ



Carroters:
- why do you think he can't have AA and KK??
- you put AQ into his range, but as played I think AQ = AA, KK

My bad, I made that range kind of quickly. I certainly do think he can have some combos of AA KK here and bet the river for value with them should we check. I do think that he's somewhat more likely to raise overpairs on the flop though given we can have AQ and draws etc. I know their of similar strength on this board, but I think a lot of regs will just auto raise the overpairs here and not AQ without putting that much thought into it. I'd discount AA KK somewhat but still include combos of them in both his calling range should Ibet this river, and his betting range should I check this river. Making this spot more of a c/f. I still think this is a c/f, c/c seems like the worst option.

Oh and as played CR river AI is fine too. (As a bluff obv.)

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Don't do that.

Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

this is really bad imo

If villain bets 1/2 pot and we shove we only need to be successful 50% of the time to show a profit.

What's villians range?
Up to 4 combos of TJs for the nuts.
Up to 6 combos of KQ for rivered two pair
Up to 4-6 combos of rivered Kings (AhKh, AcKc, KcJc, KhJh, KcTc, KhTh)
Maybe a 1/3 of his missed club flush draws or GS that turned heart flush draw, so 6 combos.

So CC is marginally unprofitable as everyone seemed to agree cuz he's never VB worse and only 20-25% of his range will be a busted FD.

However if we CR he will fold his bluffs and rivered Kings & call with straight/two pair.

(10 out of 20-22 combos) Making the CR break-even/+EV

Personally though I think Villian doesn't have 4 combos of JTs because he raises JcTc or JhTh alot and I also think he might raise his KQ on the flop 1/4 of the time, meaning he has 2pr or straight on the river less than 40% making CRAI +EV

And at the river I even think a regular will fold his rivered top two pair KQ some of the time, meaning the river CRAI is VERY +EV.
(Before you dispute this, you can see in link below -

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ml#post1962720

that Mr. Diamond and Pocket Fours would also probably fold their rivered top 2 pair in this spot, I don't blame them, I might too.)

Anyway, hope you might see CRAI isn't as bad as it sounds at first, and if you do run into top of his range obv. great for future.

*You can add some of the JTo combos to his UTG1 range but he prolly folds those by turn seeing as he only has 4 clean outs. (If u say he might be type of player to call and bet flush rivers then he's also the type of player to bet more of his busted flush draws on overcard rivers that complete open enders - which will even out the ranges again.)

Nice post. I don't like the c/r because I don't share your confidence in the fact that a 29/22 reg at 200nl is capable of b/f-ing this river for value with any hand when he expects our range and also his perceived range to contain tons of missed draws.

You should also include overpairs and slowplayed sets in villains range with a discount. KQ is 7 combos max.

I don't think the play is bad I just don't think it's the best line here.

Cool.

Even at a discount I don't know how many sets/OP can slow play that turn.

I share your concern though about the reg bet-folding, hence the other thread, I think it's a case of them realising they should 'prolly fold' but in the end they call anyway making the play marginal & why I agree that betting smallish is prob best line.

btw, also appreciate you responding to my other posts/threads.

good post pioneer. I think in the moment i'd just b/fold 32ish or c/fold. I don't think villain is raising KQ on the flop in that spot as much as you think but c/shove is definitely interesting here.

thanks for your post Pioneer

- I thought about it about one hour. But after that hour I must say exactly what said pocketfours
- I think villain will call a lot and as you said

Originally Posted by Pioneer

I think it's a case of them realising they should 'prolly fold' but in the end they call anyway

flop lead is awful, check your whole range on this board with these ranges. as played bet river for value and attempt to get hero called

reason being is this- say he's opening something like 44+, AJo KQo+ A7s+, 97s+ utg if he's kinda loose and we have 140 hands.

so preflop is close between call/fold/raise. raise is best in a vacuum, but call is best for balance since AQ is kind of the ideal hand to call with. (as in we want to be polarized with our 3bets, 3betting like 3/4th our combos of AK for value as well as some combos of Axs and the odd suited connector and QQ+ maybe KK+). we will also be calling with 99-JJ (or QQ) and hands like KQs ATs Ajs, JTs maaaaybe on a good day sometimes. so yea, our vpip here is like 7-11% maybe less with our shitty position.

that's a strong flop for our hand, but from a balance perspective if ur leading AQ here you need to be leading like 100% of ur preflop range (in which case AQ becomes a thin vbet on this runout). i think it's much better to be c/x with most of our range since we gain cbets from air + and don't expect to get 3 streets in good often on this board without completing a flush or flopping a set which we wont do often.

moral of story- i thnk most people play too loose pre here, it wouldnt be too bad to just be 3betting 6% or so and folding everything else !

yea, but lets say BB is a fish or smth, and if PFR is Cbeting not too much, esp on this board 3 ways (asuming he`d cbet at least gutshot+), isn`t it best to lead AQ here for value, since flop will get checked though big % time 3ways, and it is not great for our hand?
do you think flatting 55,66,77,88 is profitable pre, from SB vs looser good players UTG open